How to Train Your Dragon will be dethroned this weekend by A Nightmare on Elm Street. The question is how well will it do, especially because this weekend is usually a dumping ground for movies (do you remember Nicolas Cage’s Next?) Another new release just looks to have a respectable opening, as Brendan Fraser stars in Furry Vengeance, and it hopes to at least beat How To Train Your Dragon for 2nd place. Here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:
Another franchise gets rebooted with the remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street starring Jackie Earle Haley as the iconic Freddy Krueger. Fans of the franchise know what to expect, as the film follows the plot of the original. Freddy haunts the dreams (or nightmares) of the teenagers on Elm Street, and when they are dreaming he can kill them. It was an excellent premise, and the franchise was very popular in the 80’s. As the series went on, the sequels couldn’t live up to the greatness of the original, and the series died. It was rebooted with Freddy vs. Jason which did extremely well, but it’s been 2003 since that film came out. The question to me is how well will this film do at the box office, because I don’t think interest is that high on this film, as audiences are gearing up for Iron Man 2. The best way to compare this film is with other reboots of horror franchises. Here are the opening weekends for some of the rebooted films:
2009 – Friday The 13th – $40.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Prom Night – $20.8 million opening weekend
2007 – Halloween – $26.3 million opening weekend
2005 – The Amityville Horror – $23.5 million opening weekend
2003 – The Texas Chainsaw Massacre – $28 million opening weekend
All these reboots had openings over $20 million, and with A Nightmare on Elm Street arguably been the most popular of the franchises, logic would make me think that it will have an opening weekend north of $40 million, surpassing Friday The 13th. Reviews will not matter this weekend, as audiences who see this film want a good scare (Rotten Tomatoes is only listing the film at 10% positive), so the question is how popular is Freddy Krueger in 2010? Unfortunately, I don’t think all that much. I think the because of the fact that we have had more and more subpar remakes A Nightmare on Elm Street will suffer. It is the first legitimate horror film to open in quite awhile, but this is such a terrible weekend to open a film, as it is not going to show any legs at the box office over the coming weeks. Having said that, horror films don’t usually show legs anyway, so maybe it’s the perfect release date. Opening in 3,332 theatres, I’m predicting a 1st place finish for A Nightmare on Elm Street with a gross of $33 million.
Brendan Fraser stars in the film Furry Vengeance. The plot follows Fraser, who is a real estate developer that is about to build some homes in a woodland area. The critters of the forest do not like this one bit, and set out to stop the houses from being built by attacking Fraser. The critics have not been impressed with this film and as of this writing the film has received a 0% rating from Rotten Tomatoes after 20 reviews. This could be the worst film of the year with those early numbers. Brendan Fraser has been in a lot of hit films, and I don’t think he gets enough credit as a bankable star, but unfortunately this film just looks so bad that I don’t think many people will be interested in seeing it. Opening in 2,997 theatres, I’m predicting a disappointing 3rd place opening for Furry Vengeance with a gross of $11 million.
With A Nightmare on Elm Street and Furry Vengeance making the top five this weekend, I’m predicting that The Losers and Kick-Ass will be knocked out of the top five. Once again, I’m expecting a very tight battle at the box office this weekend, as I’m predicting that less than $6 million will separate 2nd place from 7th place. Here’s how I see the rest of the top five rounding out:
How to Train Your Dragon continues to be the story of the spring, and it should have another incredible hold. I’m predicting that How to Train Your Dragon will drop 26% for a gross of $11.3 million, which will make it the #2 film at the box office.
Date Night should continue to play well this weekend, as I think it is the comedy of choice in theatres right now. I’m predicting that Date Night will drop 35% for a gross of $6.8 million, giving it a 4th place finish at the box office.
The Back-Up Plan should suffer the biggest drop from 2nd place to 5th place, as the subpar opening weekend and very negative reviews should turn off audience. Dropping 52%, I’m predicting a gross of $5.8 million for The Back-Up Plan.
The Losers and Kick-Ass will also be in the hunt for 5th place, but I don’t think that they have a realistic chance of getting into the top five. I’m predicting that The Losers will drop 55% for a gross of $4.2 million giving it a 6th place finish and Kick-Ass will drop 57% for a gross of $3.9 million, making it the #7 film.
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
The Good Heart stars Paul Dano and Brian Cox and is about life at a dive bar in New York. It does not have an official theatre count and has a 36% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Harry Brown stars Michael Caine as a man who seeks vengeance on the criminals and drug addicts in his neighbourhood. It does not have an official theatre count and has a 70% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Human Centipede is about some American tourists in Europe whose car breaks down, and then they are captured by a mad surgeon who wants to fuse them together to make human centipedes. It is being released in 1 theatre and has a 57% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Mercy is a film about a novelist who writes about love, even though he has never been in love, until he meets a women named Mercy. It is being released in 1 theatre and has a 33% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Please Give stars Amanda Peet and Catherine Keener and is about life in the 21st century, and how hard it is for their characters to be a good and honest people, when so much poverty and sadness surround her. It is does not have an official theatre count and has an 88% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Touching Home is a film by brothers Logan and Noah Miller and is essentially an autobiography of their lives. It is does not have an official theatre count and has yet to be reviewed on Rotten Tomatoes.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
- A Nightmare on Elm Street – $33 million
- How To Train Your Dragon – $11.3 million
- Furry Vengeance – $11 million
- Date Night – $6.76 million
- The Back-Up Plan – $5.8 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
