When we look back at 2010, this weekend could be considered the worst weekend in terms of box office grosses of the year. Two new releases failed to set the box office on fire, and How to Train Your Dragon will claim the #1 spot (and will not lose it when final grosses come in Monday like it did last weekend). 2nd place through 7th place is a very tight battle so their might be some changes when the final numbers come out on Monday. The top five films grossed a combined $56.9 million, which shows how weak the movies in theatres are right now. My predictions in terms of box office gross were amazing, and although I predicted all five films to be in the top five, only one ended up being in the spot that I thought it would be in. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Returning to 1st place, after being the #3 film for 2 weekends, and the runner-up last weekend is How To Train Your Dragon with a gross of $15 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $14.7 million). The film had yet another amazing hold as it was only down 23.5% from last weekend (which for the 3rd weekend in a row is the lowest percentage drop in the top ten) and had a per theatre average of $4,100. In its 5th weekend of release, How to Train Your Dragon had the 8th highest grossing fifth weekend gross in history, so that is excellent news, as the film is really the only bright spot at the box office right now. How to Train Your Dragon has become DreamWorks Animation 8th highest grossing film of all-time and at some point this week it will pass Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa to to become their 7th highest grossing film. How to Train Your Dragon has now hit $178 million. Here are the grosses for the top ten DreamWorks Animation films:
1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million
2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million
3) Shrek – $267.6 million
4) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million
5) Monsters vs. Aliens – $198.3 million
6) Madagascar – $193.5 million
7) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $180 million
8) How To Train Your Dragon – $178 million
9) Shark Tale – $160.8 million
10) Over The Hedge – $155 million
How To Train Your Dragon should become the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks Animation history in the coming weeks.
Debuting in 2nd place is the Jennifer Lopez comedy The Back-Up Plan with a gross of $12.2 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $16 million). The film had a per theatre average of $3,735 which is absolutely horrendous for a debut film showing in more than 3,000 theatres. Jennifer Lopez has to really re-consider her acting career, because she is not a big enough star anymore to open a film. She should consider doing more supporting work if she wants to be in films. The opening weekend should not be a surprise as The Back-Up Plan opened in line with other films where Lopez was the lead. Here’s a list:
2005 – Monster-In-Law – $23.1 million
2003 – Gigli – $3.7 million
2002 – Maid in Manhattan – $18.7 million
2002 – Enough – $14 million
2001 – Angel Eyes – $9.2 million
2001 – The Wedding Planner – $13.5 million
2000 – The Cell – $17.5 million
1998 – Out of Sight – $12 million
1997 – Selena – $11.6 million
The average opening weekend of these Jennifer Lopez films are $13.7 million. It can be argued that Jennifer Lopez did her job and got an opening weekend gross in line with her average. Unfortunately, that does not help the long term prospects of the film, so expect The Back-Up Plan on DVD shelves soon.
Staying in 3rd place for a second weekend in a row is Date Night with a gross of $10.6 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $9.68 million). Date Night had a per theatre average of $3,218, and dropped a low 36.6% from last weekend. Date Night has proven to be the comedy of choice for audiences as Death at a Funeral is already out of the top five in its second weekend, as audiences want to see the pairing of Steve Carell and Tina Fey. After three weekends, Date Night has grossed $63.4 million.
Debuting in 4th place is The Losers with a gross of $9.6 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $12 million). The film failed to grab audiences and had a terrible per theatre average of $3,271. The cast did not have enough star power to bring in audiences, and fans of comics and graphic novels had Kick-Ass to see last weekend to tide them over while they are now waiting for Iron Man 2. Expect The Losers to join The Back-Up Plan on DVD shelves soon.
Dropping from 1st place to 5th is Kick-Ass with a gross of $8.7 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $9.5 million). Kick-Ass dropped 52.1% from last weekend and had a per theatre average of $3,100. The drop was to be expected, but because of how poor the opening weekend was for Kick-Ass, I’m sure studio execs were hoping for a stronger hold. Word-of-mouth is good, as are the reviews, so it is a little disappointing that Kick-Ass has not caught on with audiences. Like The Losers, Kick-Ass is now just tiding over fans of comic books//graphic novels until Iron Man 2 opens in a couple of weeks. After two weekends, Kick-Ass has grossed $34.8 million, which is good news, as the budget was reportedly around $30 million.
The battle for 6th place and 7th place is tight. Currently Clash of the Titans sits in 6th place with a gross of $9 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $6.88 million); while Death at a Funeral sits in 7th place with a gross of $8 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $6.64 million). I will stress that Clash of the Titans and Death at a Funeral could switch positions when final numbers come out on Monday.
In limited release:
Oceans debuted in 8th place with a gross of $6 million (I predicted a gross of $5.8 million and for the film to finish just outside of the top five). Oceans had a per theatre average of $4,975 which was the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten, which goes to show you how weak the box office was this weekend. Since its Earth Day opening, Oceans has grossed $8.5 million.
Boogie Woogie, The Good, The Bad, The Weird, and Paper Man have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) The Back-Up Plan – $16 million
2) How To Train Your Dragon – $14.7 million
3) The Losers – $12 million
4) Date Night – $9.68 million
5) Kick-Ass – $8.7 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) How To Train Your Dragon – $15 million
2) The Back-Up Plan – $12.2 million
3) Date Night – $10.6 million
4) The Losers – $9.6 million
5) Kick-Ass – $9.5 million
My top five predictions were off by $8.22 million.
Next weekend, How to Train Your Dragon looks to be the #1 film for a third non-consecutive weekend, but it will have to fight off Freddy Krueger in the remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street and Brendan Fraser fighting off nature in Furry Vengeance.
Check back next week to read my predictions.