Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of April 16th, 2010


Two new films get released this weekend in the hopes of dethroning two time box office champion Clash of the Titans. It will happen, but the question is, which film will do it: Kick-Ass or Death at a Funeral? Here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:

Kick-Ass opens with a ton of hype this weekend. This “R” rated take on the super-hero genre looks like a lot of fun, but is also stirring up some controversy because of the character called “Hit Girl” (she’s a young girl who swears like a sailor and kills people in a very violent manner). I personally could care less about the controversy. I’d rather just get down to the merits of the film. First off, it does not have a well-known cast. Nicolas Cage is the most recognizable name, but he is not the star of the film. Instead the lead is Aaron Johnson, who has only done a handful of films, and you’d have to be a major film buff to know them. Christopher Mintz-Plasse also stars as a wannabe superhero. Kick-Ass reminds me of two other “R” rated films: Watchmen and Zombieland. Watchmen because it is another film based on a comic that deals with superheroes in a darker light that for the most part don’t actually have superpowers, and Zombieland because it is a film that wants to have fun with the genre it is in, without making it a parody. Here are the opening weekend grosses of both films:

2009 – Watchmen – $55.2 million

2009 – Zombieland – $24.7 million

I think that Kick-Ass will open closer to Zombieland just because their was a ton of hype surrounding Watchmen while Zombieland flew a little under the radar, which is how I think Kick-Ass is being positioned (as the underdog, which is fitting for a superhero movie). Early reviews have been very strong, with Kick-Ass receiving a 74% positive rating from Rotten Tomatoes. I think the film will have a decent opening, but really play well over the coming weeks. Opening in 3,065 theatres, I predict that Kick-Ass will open at #1 with a gross of $27 million.

The other new release of the weekend is the remake of Death at a Funeral, which has an all-star cast led by Chris Rock. The film deals with Rock’s family getting together for his father’s funeral, and how everything that can go wrong leading up to the funeral does. Chris Rock’s character has to deal with weird family members, one of his relatives dropping acid, and a midget who claimed to be having gay sex with his dad, among other things. I think the trailer looks very funny, and the fact that Neil LaBute is the director is an inspired choice. However, critics do not seem to like this film as Rotten Tomatoes has it listed at only 40% positive. This is too bad, as I think the film has a lot of potential, so it will have to rely on word-of-mouth. It’s not getting a major theatre count this weekend, as it will only be in 2,459 theatres, but I think that because the trailer is so good, and the all-star cast that is in the film, Death at a Funeral will do quite well this weekend. I’m predicting a 2nd place finish and a gross of $24 million.

With Kick-Ass and Death at a Funeral making the top five this weekend, I’m predicting that Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too and The Last Song will be pushed out of the top five. Here’s how I see Clash of the Titans, Date Night, and How to Train Your Dragon doing to round out the top five:

Clash of the Titans ended up being the #1 film last weekend, but it will have a fall from grace this weekend. It’s going to be in a battle for 4th place with Date Night but I think that despite the bad word-of-mouth on Clash of the Titans, it will hold on to beat Date Night for 4th place at the box office. I’m predicting a drop of 55% for a gross of $11.9 million.

Date Night ended up being the #2 movie last weekend, in a very close box office battle (the closest in quite awhile). Now we’ll see how well the film has done with word-of-mouth over the past week. It has been in a tight battle all week with Clash of the Titans. Unfortunately for Date Night, Clash of the Titans has been beating it everyday this week by a narrow margin. I want Date Night to be the #4 film, but I think it is going to lose a lot of its audience to Death at a Funeral this weekend. When any genre has two films competing against each other, its audience will get split, and both films will suffer to some degree, and that is exactly what will happen to Date Night. This will be an incredibly close battle at the box office, but I’m predicting a drop of 53% from last weekend for Date Night, which will give it a gross of $11.8 million and a 5th place finish.

How to Train Your Dragon has been the major story to me in 2010. It overcame a sub-par opening weekend to become one of the biggest hits of the year, and could become the highest grossing non-Shrek movie for DreamWorks Animation when all is said and done. How To Train Your Dragon should have another small decline this weekend, so I’m predicting a drop of 35% to give How To Train Your Dragon a gross of $16.1 million, which will make it the #3 film for the 2nd week in a row.

Opening in limited release, we have the following films:

The Joneses is a satire that stars Demi Moore and David Duchovny about consumer culture. It is being released in 192 theatres and has a 49% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

No One Knows About Persian Cats is a drama about a rock group in Tehran trying to play their music, and how the Iranian authorities try to shut them down. It is being released in 2 theatres and has a 96% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

The City Of Your Final Destination is a drama that stars Anthony Hopkins and Laura Linney that is about a prospective biographer who ends up meeting his potential subject’s family. It is being released in 1 theatre and has a 55% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Kick-Ass – $27 million

2) Death At A Funeral – $24 million

3) How To Train Your Dragon – $16.1 million

4) Clash of the Titans – $11.9 million

5) Date Night – $11.8 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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