Alice in Wonderland opened HUGE this weekend, setting many records in the process. My prediction was absolutely way off for the film. In fact, the film more than doubled my prediction. It was not a great weekend by me in terms of figuring out where films finished. Here’s the breakdown:
Debuting in the #1 spot with a gross of $116.3 million is Alice in Wonderland (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $58 million). The film set numerous records this weekend. Let me show you what it did:
HIGHEST OPENING WEEKENDS – ALL-TIME
1) The Dark Knight – $158.4 million
2) Spider-Man 3 – $151.1 million
3) The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $142.8 million
4) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $135.6 million
5) Shrek The Third – $121.6 million
6) Alice in Wonderland – $116.3 million
7) Spider-Man – $114.8 million
8) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – $114.7 million
9) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $109 million
10) Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith – $108.4 million
NOTE – Alice in Wonderland is the highest opening weekend for a non-sequel ever, and Depp now has three films in this list.
HIGHEST OPENING WEEKENDS IN MARCH – ALL-TIME
1) Alice in Wonderland – $116.3 million
2) 300 – $70.8 million
3) Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68 million
4) Monsters vs. Aliens – $59.3 million
5) Watchmen – $55.2 million
It was an absolute juggernaut at the box office. It had a per theatre average of $31,196, which was the 2nd highest average of any film this weekend. The question now is how will it do in its 2nd weekend? Reviews vary from mixed to good, which is encouraging, but I would expect a drop of more than 50% next weekend. We’ll have to wait and see.
2nd place and 3rd place are very tight, so positions might change when final numbers come out on Monday.
Debuting in 2nd place is the police thriller Brooklyn’s Finest with a gross of $13.5 million (I predicted a 4th place opening and a gross of $9.4 million). The film overcame lacklustre reviews, and did moderately well as an alternative film for audiences to see. It’s per theatre average was a very respectable $6,973, which is very impressive for a film that didn’t get a lot of support from its studio in terms of marketing. Adults do care what critics think, so we’ll see if the word-of-mouth buzz is strong by how it does in its 2nd weekend.
Shutter Island fell from 1st to 3rd this weekend with a gross of $13.3 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $11.9 million). The film was down 41.3% from last weekend, which is its smallest drop yet, and had a per theatre average of $4,185, which signifies that interest in the film is slowly fading away. No complaints from me about how well the film is doing overall, as in three weeks of release, Shutter Island has grossed $95.8 million, which means that it has already made back its budget, which was reportedly around $80 million.
Cop Out dropped from 2nd place to 4th place with a gross of $9.1 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $8.5 million). Cop Out dropped by 49.8% this weekend, which is not bad considering that the reviews have been terrible, and now that it is in its second weekend, word-of-mouth buzz is the films biggest marketing tool. It has a per theatre average of $2,903, which is not very good, and does signify that the film will be on DVD sooner than anyone would like. In two weekends, Cop Out has taken in $32.3 million, which means that it has made back its reported $30 million budget.
Finishing in 5th place is Avatar with a gross of $7.7 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $10.8 million). Avatar suffered its biggest percentage drop this weekend, as the gross was down 43.6% from last weekend. A reason for the big drop, is that it lost some of it’s 3-D screens (both regular and IMAX) to Alice in Wonderland. Avatar had a per theatre average of $3,560, which is also a low for the film. I’m not being negative, because the important thing to remember is that this film has been out for 12 weeks, and films that are in their 3rd weeks, would kill for these numbers. Avatar has now grossed $720.1 million.
In limited release, The Secret of Kells, which is a nominee for Best Animated Feature, was released in one theatre this weekend, where it had a gross of $40,000, which also gave it the highest per theatre average of any film in release this weekend.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) Alice in Wonderland – $58 million
2) Shutter Island – $11.9 million
3) Avatar – $10.8 million
4) Brooklyn’s Finest – $9.4 million
5) Cop Out – $8.5 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) Alice in Wonderland – $116.3 million
2) Brooklyn’s Finest – $13.5 million
3) Shutter Island – $13.3 million
4) Cop Out – $9.1 million
5) Avatar – $7.7 million
My top five predictions were off by $67.5 million
Next weekend, Alice in Wonderland will try to be the #1 film for the second weekend in a row against Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass’ new war-time thriller Green Zone, the Robert Pattinson drama Remember Me and the new Jay Baruchel comedy She’s Out Of My League.
Check back next week for my predictions!
