Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of February 26th, 2010

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Two major R rated films get released this weekend, with the hope of dethroning Shutter Island from the top of the box office.  Here’s how I’m predicting the weekend to unfold.

Bruce Willis and Tracy Morgan star in Kevin Smith’s Cop Out.  This is an action-comedy that has Willis and Morgan paired up as cops trying to solve the case of a missing baseball card that is worth millions.  The film is notable for fans of the director, as it is the first film Kevin Smith has directed that he has not written.  Smith is looking to have a personal best in terms of opening weekend and ranking, as no Smith film has ever opened at #1, and the best opening weekend he has ever had came from 2001’s Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, as that film made $11 million on its opening weekend.  Bruce Willis is also looking for a hit as his last film Surrogates debuted in 2nd place with a disappointing opening weekend gross of $14.9 million.  Reviews have been terrible, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 13%.  Although the critics have slammed the film, I think the trailer is appealing enough, and people are in the mood for an action/comedy, even a bad one.  Opening in 3,150 theatres, Cop Out will gross $19 million and finish in 1st place.

The Crazies is a horror film about a town whose citizen’s start going mad and killing people.  The government quarantines the town but do they stop the violence in time, and does the government know more than they let on?  This is a remake of a 1973 George Romero film, and it is the rare horror movie that is getting very good reviews.  In fact, Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 79%.  Two negatives I have on the film are the fact that the cast does not have any marquee names (Timothy Olyphant and Radha Mitchell are the biggest names), and the fact that the studio is only releasing the film in 2,476 theatres.  I don’t know if that is wide enough to have a big opening.  I’m predicting a 3rd place finish, with a gross of $12 million.

With Cop Out and The Crazies making the top five, two of last week’s films will be pushed out.  Here’s how I think the remaining films will do:

Shutter Island will suffer a big drop, as most horror films tend to do, as it will be down 62% for a gross of $15.6 million, which will put it in 2nd place.

Avatar will have another small fall, as I’m predicting a drop of 30% for a gross of $11.3 million, and a 4th place finish.

Percy Jackson and the Olympians:  The Lightning Thief will have a drop of 52%, which will give it a gross of $7.2 million and a 5th place finish.

Valentine’s Day will slip to 6th place as it will drop 65% for a gross of $5.81 million.

The Wolfman will have another big fall, and drop 61% for a gross of $3.8 million.

In limited release, we have the following films opening:

The Art of the Steal – This is a documentary about a prized art collection and the controversy that surrounds it.  It opens in 3 theatres, and has an 85% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Formosa Betrayed – This thriller stars James Van Der Beek involved in a politically motivated murder.  It opens in 15 theatres, and has a 43% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Prodigal Sons – This is a documentary that follows the lives of a family in Montana, and their dysfunctional life.  It has a 67% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes. 

A Prophet – This is a highly acclaimed French film about a Muslim man who rises in the ranks and becomes a crime boss while he is in prison.  It has a 94% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes. 

The Yellow Handkerchief – This thriller stars William Hurt, Kristen Stewart and Maria Bello is about an authour who finds out that the subject of his latest book may not be so perfect.  It has a 71% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes. 

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Cop Out – $19 million

2) Shutter Island – $15.6 million

3) The Crazies – $12 million

4) Avatar – $11.3 million

5) Percy Jackson and the Olympians:  The Lighting Thief – $7.2 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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