Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of January 8th, 2010


Three new films get released this weekend, and they all have absolutely zero chance of dethroning Avatar from the top spot.  January is a dumping ground for films that studios have no faith in, but surprisingly two of the three wide releases are getting decent notices.  Let’s look at the contenders

Daybreakers is a story about vampires who have to deal with the problem of having no humans around, so where are they going to get their blood from?  More importantly, do audiences even care?  If critics have any say about it, they say you should.  Rotten Tomatoes lists the film at 65%, which is pretty decent for a film that a studio does not have a lot of faith in.  Star power is minimal as the film stars Ethan Hawke, Willem Dafoe, and Sam Neill, who are all respected actors, but not box office draws.  Getting the widest release of any of the new releases this week, Daybreakers launches in 2,523 theatres and I’m predicting a gross of $6 million

Leap Year stars Amy Adams in a story of a woman who travels to Ireland in order for her to propose to her boyfriend, as it is apparently all right for women to do this in Ireland on February 29th.  Amy Adams stars in the romantic comedy, that critics say you should avoid at all costs.  Leap Year is currently at 14% at Rotten Tomatoes, and as much as critics like Amy Adams, they say you should see any of her other movies instead.  Opening in 2,511 theatres, Leap Year should gross $6.5 million

Youth In Revolt is the third new wide release of the weekend and it stars Michael Cera as a teenager who is not particularly cool, so he creates a new persona, in the hopes of getting the girl he loves.  Reviews have been positive as Rotten Tomatoes lists the film at 73%, and Michael Cera hopes that he can lead the film to a decent opening at the box office.  This will be tough, as the studio is only releasing the film in 1,873 theatres this weekend.  With the low theatre count, I’m predicting the film will gross $5.2 million.

In limited release, Crazy on the Outside is opening in 74 theatres.  The film is directed by and stars Tim Allen.

The female action parody/love song to B action flicks Bitch Slap is opening in 3 theatres.

This brings us to our holdovers that I think will all be in the top five:

I’m predicting Avatar will drop 42% for a gross of $39.44 million to remain in the #1 spot.

Sherlock Holmes will fall 58% for a gross of $15.3 million.  I just think the film is a draw to a large number of demographics.

Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel will drop 65% as this seemed like a film that parents would take their kids to see over the holidays, and now that the holidays are done, there is not much interest to see the film.  It will gross $12.2 million

It’s Complicated is still appealing to the adults, and with no new options opening for them (Leap Year skews younger), I’m predicting a drop of 52% for a gross of $9 million.

Up In The Air will suffer a small decline, as it continues to build some Oscar buzz, and because of that 323 theatres are being added.  It will drop 35% for a gross of $7.7 million.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Avatar – $39.44 million

2) Sherlock Holmes – $15.3 million

3) Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel – $12.2 million

4) It’s Complicated – $9 million

5) Up In The Air – $7.7 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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