Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of January 1, 2010

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I catch a bit of a break this weekend, as there is no new major release this weekend, so it will be a battle of the holdovers, which will make this a very short update.  Here’s what I’m thinking will happen this weekend.

Last year, the box office had the same top five films as it did on the Christmas weekend (It was led by Marley and Me).  The highest drop off of any film in the top five was 33.3% and the lowest was just 16.5%.  This year, I believe the percentages will be in the same range, and I also think the order of the films in the top five will be the same as last weekend.

On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, the box office has had the same top five films each day.  They are as follows:

1) Avatar

2) Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel

3) Sherlock Holmes

4) It’s Complicated

5) The Princess and The Frog

I think the order of the films will change slightly on the weekend, as kids saw what they wanted during the week, and adults will take over on the weekend.

Avatar will remain in the #1 spot, dropping 10% for a gross of $68 million.

Sherlock Holmes will be the #2 film again at the box office, after being defeated on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, by dropping 24% for a gross of $47.3 million.

Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel will have a decent hold as well dropping only 22% for a gross of $38 million.

It’s Complicated will have the biggest drop off of any film in the top five, as the adult audience is not liking the word of mouth on the film.  It will drop 42% for a gross of $12.8 million.

The Blind Side will return to the #5 spot, dropping only 25% for a gross of $8.5 million.

Up In The Air and The Princess and The Frog will be battling for the #5 spot as well, but will fall short.

There is only one film opening in limited release, and that is The White Ribbon directed by Michael Haneke.  It won the Golden Palm at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, and is hoping that the prestige of that award will bring in an audience.  I do not have a theatre count for the film.

So those are my predictions this weekend.  To recap, they are:

1) Avatar – $68 million

2) Sherlock Holmes – $47.3 million

3) Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel – $38 million

4) It’s Complicated – $12.8 million

5) The Blind Side – $8.5 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did.

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