Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of December 25, 2009


With it being Christmas this weekend, I’ve been a little busier than normal, so I apologize for the condensed version of my predictions.  Here we go.

Sherlock Holmes has a lot going for it.  An A-List star in Robert Downey Jr. and strong marketing campaign.  Reviews have been average (Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 68%), but that shouldn’t matter on the first weekend.  Opening in 3,626 theatres, I’m predicting that Sherlock Holmes will open at #1 with $55 million.

Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel gets the widest launch this weekend with 3,656 theatres.  It had a very strong opening day on Wednesday with a gross of $18.8 million.  The first film opened with $44 million two years ago, and a sequel should surpass the original total.  It will, but not by much, just because of the strong options that moviegoers have this weekend.  I’m predicting it will be the #3 film with a gross of $50 million.

The other wide release this weekend is the adult comedy It’s Complicated starring Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin, and Steve Martin.  Reviews matter to adults, and unfortunately the reviews are not strong for It’s Complicated with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 46%.  It’s not getting as wide a release as the other major new releases, with only 2,886 theatres, but the adult audiences should give it some decent support.  I’m predicting a fourth place finish with a gross of $18 million.

I’m predicting that Avatar will hold up well this weekend, and narrowly finish in 2nd place with a gross of $52 million, a drop of only 30% from its opening weekend.

The Princess and The Frog should round out the top five, and see an uptick in business with families going to the movies over the holiday weekend.  I’m predicting a 5th place finish with a gross of $15 million.

The only other film opening this weekend is The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, which I do not have a theatre count for, so I will not make a prediction.

Expanding this weekend are the following films:

Up In The Air, Nine, The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, and The Young Victoria.  Moviegoers will have options to say the least this weekend.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Sherlock Holmes – $55 million

2) Avatar – $53.9 million

3) Alvin and the Chipmunks:  The Squeakquel – $50 million

4) It’s Complicated – $18 million

5) The Princess and the Frog – $15 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did.

Leave a Reply