Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap Up Report

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Another solid week of predictions, and the box office performed pretty much like I expected it would.  I picked four of the five films in their correct spot, and I was surprised by the results for one film.  Here is the breakdown.

The Blind Side topped the box office for the first time this weekend in its third week of release with a gross of $20.4 million (I predicted it would be the #1 film with a gross of $26.8 million).  The film has really connected with audiences, and was finally able to get out of the #2 spot and overtake The Twilight Saga:  New Moon for the #1 spot.  The film dropped 49% from last weekend, which is a decent hold after the American Thanksgiving weekend, and had a per theatre average of $6,146, which is excellent for a film in wide release in its third week.  The Blind Side has now grossed $129.2 million and will overtake The Proposal to become Sandra Bullock’s highest grossing film of her career.

The Twilight Saga:  New Moon fell from the top spot this weekend to be the runner-up with a gross of $15.7 million (I predicted it would be the #2 film with a gross of $16.6 million).  The film was off 63.4%, which is too big a drop for a film in its third weekend.  I again will say that the core fan base has been satisfied, and that the film will continue to have big drops until the end of its run, as it cannot draw new people to the film.  The per theatre average was $3,807 which is not good for a major film in only its third week (It also was playing in the most theatres of any film with 4,124 theatres).  Summit Entertainment should not be upset though.  The total gross of the film stands at $255.6 million.

3rd place was a major surprise to me.  Here’s what I wrote about the #3 film in my predictions on Friday.  “…I don’t think anyone knows that this film is coming out in theatres today.  Ask your friends or co-workers if they have even heard of this film or if they know that it is coming out today.  Chances are that they do not.”  That’s right – Brothers was the #3 film with a gross of $9.7 million (I incorrectly predicted that the film would not make the top five and only gross $3.5 million).  My statement from Friday shows how off I was in awareness of the film.  It was the highest grossing film of the three new releases this weekend (when I thought it would be the lowest).  The per theatre average was a decent but not spectacular $4,646 from 2,088 theatres.  The number suggests that Brothers will not have a long life in theatres, and because reviews have only been average at best, adult audiences are unlikely to come see the film in the coming weeks.  Lionsgate did not have much faith in the film with the low theatre count, so they have to be happy with the 3rd place result.

In 4th place is Disney’s A Christmas Carol with a gross of $7.5 million (I predicted it would be the #4 film and gross $7.5 million).  The film dropped 52.3% and should see steady business leading up to Christmas Day.  The per theatre average was $2,954, and the total gross of the film stands at $115 million.  From a financial point of view, Disney and Robert Zemeckis’ Imagemovers must be disappointed that the film has only grossed $115 million (The Blind Side has grossed more than Disney’s A Christmas Carol in only 3 weeks).  The drop of 52.3% is higher than The Polar Express’ drop in the weekend after Thanksgiving as The Polar Express only dropped 44.4% on that weekend 5 years ago.

Rounding out the top five is Old Dogs with a gross of $6.9 million (I predicted the film would gross $7.5 million and that it would be the #5 film).  Old Dogs dropped 59.2% and had a per theatre average of $2,015.  The numbers say that the film is declining rapidly and that it will be on DVD sooner than I’m sure Disney wants it to be.  What makes the numbers hurt even more is that Old Dogs was in the 2nd most theatres of any film this weekend with a theatre count of 3,425.  The total gross for Old Dogs stands at $33.9 million.

For the other two new releases – Armored finished in a tie for 6th place with 2012 with a gross of $6.6 million (I predicted that Armored would not finish in the top five and gross $4.75 million).  The per theatre average for Armored was $3,446.  The star power of the film brought in more people then I thought it would, but it did not make a huge dent at the box office.  Expect a rapid decline for the film in the coming weeks.

Everybody’s Fine starring Robert DeNiro fared the worst of the new releases finishing in 10th place with a gross of $4 million (I predicted that the film would finish outside the top five with a gross of $6 million).  The Christmas theme of the film did not resonate with audiences.  It had a per theatre average of $1,888, and the fact that the film did not get a lot of support from Miramax (it only had a theatre count of 2,133) means that long term prospects are dim.

In other news –

Up In The Air had a strong debut as it grossed $1.185 million from 15 theatres for a per theatre average of $79,000.  The film just got named Best Film of the Year from the National Board of Review, and its hoping to generate more buzz and more awards leading up to its Christmas Day wide release.

Disney’s The Princess and The Frog had a strong second week with a gross of $744,00 which was only down 5.4% from last weekend.  The film has a high gross from only 2 theatres because tickets are priced very high as Disney is making the very limited release a special event.  Total gross for the film stands at $2.4 million.

The Fantastic Mr. Fox had a big drop as it was down 58.6% from last weekend for a gross of $2.8 million.  Total gross for the film stands at $14 million.

Precious did not have a good weekend.  The film got snubbed by the National Board of Review and did not make the ten best films of the year list, and it also fell 67.4% from last weekend for a gross of $2.3 million.  The total gross for the film stands at $36.2 million.

To recap, here are my predictions:

  1. The Blind Side – $26.8 million
  2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $16.6 million
  3. 2012 – $9.6 million
  4. Disney’s A Christmas Carol – $8.6 million
  5. Old Dogs – $7.5 million

And here are the weekend numbers:

  1. The Blind Side – $20.4 million
  2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $15.7 million
  3. Brothers – $9.7 million
  4. Disney’s A Christmas Carol – $7.5 million
  5. Old Dogs – $6.9 million

Scotty G’s Top Five Predictions were off by – $15.1 million

Opening next Friday are The Princess and The Frog (it goes into wide release), Invictus, The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, and The Slammin’ Salmon.

Come back next Friday to read my predictions on those films.

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