Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of December 4, 2009


It’s the post-Thanksgiving weekend in the U.S., which means that there is going to be a big let down at the box office this weekend.  Let’s call it the Thanksgiving hangover.  Three new movies open, but the studios behind them are not supporting them heavily, and I’m going to flat out say that none of the new releases will make the top five this weekend.

Everybody’s Fine stars Robert DeNiro as a father whose family is too busy to come see him over the holidays, so he goes on a trip to all of their houses to reconnect with them.  The Christmas theme of the movie will definitely appeal to some, but as the film is geared towards adults, reviews will play a factor.  Unfortunately, Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 50% as of this writing (from 28 reviews so far) which is not going to help people go to the theatre to see the film.  Opening in 2,113 (which is quite low for a wide release, but is actually the highest theatre count total of any new release this weekend), I’m predicting Everybody’s Fine to open outside the top five with $6 million.

Armored stars Matt Dillon, Jean Reno, Laurence Fishburne, and Skeet Ulrich and is a heist movie that its distributor doesn’t have much faith in because of two things: 1) The film is not being released for critics 2) The distributor is only releasing the film in 1,915 theatres, which is the lowest of the three new releases this weekend.  The film is geared towards men, but I do not think men want to see Armored.  As much as I like some of the actors above, they are not box office draws.  Fishburne might be able to draw some people because of his C.S.I. connection, but I don’t think he will bring over that big an audience.  I predict that Armored will open outside the top five with a gross of $4.75 million.

Brothers is the latest film from director Jim Sheridan (In The Name Of The Father, The Boxer, My Left Foot, and In America), and it stars Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Natalie Portman.  The film is about a Marine who goes missing overseas, so his brother looks after the family that has been left behind.  The brother and wife start a relationship, only to have a wrench thrown in when the Marine returns home.  The cast is great (although not huge box office draws, and yes I don’t think that Tobey Maguire is a box office draw outside of the Spider-Man franchise), the reviews have been average (Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 54% from 28 reviews), but I don’t think anyone knows that this film is coming out in theatres today.  Ask your friends or co-workers if they have even heard of this film or if they know that it is coming out today.  Chances are that they do not.  There has been almost no marketing for it and I feel that it is being dumped into theatres.  Opening in 2,088 theatres, I’m predicting Brothers to open outside the top five with $3.5 million.

The top five films from last week will all be in the top five this week, but in a different order.  Here’s what I think will happen.

The Twilight Saga:  New Moon will suffer another big decline, as its up front demand has been met.  The film has definitely been a money maker for Summit Entertainment, but it is not a franchise that has a lot of legs to it.  I’m expecting a 61% drop for a gross of $16.6 million and it will be the #2 film this weekend.

The Blind Side is going to be the #1 film this weekend.  It has built up a tremendous amount of good will and buzz since its release, and this week it will be able to reach the summit.  I’m expecting a small decline of 33% for a gross of $26.8 million.

2012 was the number three film last weekend, and it will be the number three film this weekend.  The big budget blockbuster is holding up well, and it is a film that begs you to see it in theatres.  Dropping 45% from last weekend, I’m expecting 2012 to gross $9.6 million.

Disney’s A Christmas Carol is going to bump up a spot to 4th place this weekend because we are now in December; Christmas is getting even closer, so people are in the mood to see Christmas movies.  With the film being in 3-D and in IMAX 3-D, that can only help the gross.  Dropping 45%, I expect Disney’s A Christmas Carol to gross $8.6 million.

Old Dogs will round out the top five.  People will be lured in by the names Williams and Travolta, but if the first weekend was any indication, there is not a lot of interest in this film.  If Old Dogs had opened in the late 90’s it would have been a blockbuster, but the star power is just not as big as it once was.  Dropping 55%, I’m predicting a gross of $7.5 million.

In limited release, George Clooney stars in Jason Reitman’s Up In The Air.  The film has built up tremendous buzz at film festivals, so it is starting out small in 10 theatres to continue that buzz, and slowly go into wider release until it has its big release on Christmas Day.  Expect an excellent per theatre average for Up In The Air.

To recap, here are my predictions:

  1. The Blind Side – $26.8 million
  2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $16.6 million
  3. 2012 – $9.6 million
  4. A Christmas Carol – $8.6 million
  5. Old Dogs – $7.5 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did.

One Reply to “Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of December 4, 2009”

  1. it's been a while since i've seen a decent movie at the theater, so 'Brothers' was a welcome surprise; that movie will get nominated for at least a few awards I'm sure

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