I had a very stellar weekend of predictions, guessing all 5 of the films that would be in the top 5, and getting 3 of them in order. The American Thanksgiving weekend was booming so let’s get right to it.
The Twilight Saga: New Moon was the #1 film in the land for the second week in a row, but fell a disturbing 70.2% from last weekend in doing so. The Twilight Saga: New Moon grossed $42.5 million (I predicted it would $45.6 million and correctly predicted it to be the #1 film). The 70.2% is the 4th largest drop in movie history for a film that grossed over $30 million on its opening weekend. Everything I wrote about this film came true. The up front demand was satisfied, as young women went out in droves on the opening weekend. The other demographics are not interested in this franchise, and it dropped fast. Now $42.5 million is still a total most films would love to have, but in terms of the power of the Twilight franchise, I would say that this is a most disappointing result. The film had a per theatre average of $10,515 which was 3rd highest in the top ten. The total gross stands at $230.6 million after two weeks.
Following closely in 2nd place is The Blind Side with $40.1 million (I predicted it would be the #2 film and gross $35.8 million). The film had a perfect strategy with its release date. It opened last weekend, and created buzz, and with this weekend being American Thanksgiving, football is a big part of it, so the football theme was perfect for families going to see the film. The film actually rose 17.6%, which is an impressive accomplishment. The per theatre average for the film was $12,779 – highest in the top ten. The total gross stands at $100.2 million after two weeks.
Another holdover finished in 3rd place. 2012 grossed $18 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $15.8 million). The disaster pick held up well over the holidays as it only dropped 31.8%. 2012 had a per theatre average of $5,226 and has a total gross of $138.7 million after three weeks.
Finally – one of the new releases for this weekend makes an appearance as Old Dogs finished in 4th place with $16.8 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $18 million). I was reading that this film should have been made in the 90’s when Travolta and Williams hard much more star power, and I agree with that. Audiences did not seem to care for the film, as it had a per theatre average of $4,919 (lowest of any film in the top five). Expect this film to fade quickly from theatres.
In 5th place, my gamble paid off. Here’s what I wrote on Friday. To round out the top five and I’m going with an underdog pick with Disney’s A Christmas Carol. The reason is simply that I’m comparing this film to The Polar Express. 5 years ago when that film was released, it had a boost of 23.8% on the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Disney’s A Christmas Carol is the same style of film, is also about Christmas, and should have the same result. My prediction came true as Disney’s A Christmas Carol remained in the top five with an increase of 30.4% from last weekend, and a gross of $16 million (I predicted a gross of $15.2 million and a fifth place finish). Its per theatre average was $5,311. The gross is a little inflated, because the film has the advantage of 3-D screenings, which are more expensive. When final numbers come out on Monday, there is an outside chance that it will be the #4 film, as its gross is close to Old Dogs gross. The total gross for Disney’s A Christmas Carol stands at $105.3 million after four weeks.
As for the other new releases, here is how they did:
Ninja Assassin seems to be dead on arrival. It finished in 6th place with a gross $13.1 million and a per theatre average of $5,248.
The Road with Viggo Mortensen fared really well. It was the #11 film with a gross of $1.5 million from 111 theatres for a per theatre average of $13,721.
Disney’s The Princess and The Frog was the #18 film in the land from only 2 theatres. It had a gross of $712,00 for a per theatre average of $356,000. It’s Disney’s first hand drawn animated film since 2004’s Home on the Range. Advance buzz on the film has been positive, so let’s see if it continues and helps the traditionally animated film return to cinemas.
The Private Lives of Pippa Lee starring Robin Wright Penn had a less than stellar opening. It grossed $96,00 from 12 theatres for a per theatre average of $8,000.
Me and Orson Welles fared a little better with a gross of $64,800 from 4 theatres for a per theatre average of $16,200.
Other notable films:
The Fantastic Mr. Fox jumped, and I mean jumped into the top ten with a 3,349.4% improvement from last week. It finished as the #9 film with a gross of $7.02 million.
Precious: Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire did not have the box office increase I was expecting it to have this weekend. It fell 34.8% from last weekend and was the #8 film with a gross of $7.09 million.
So my predictions are as follows:
- The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $45.6 million
- The Blind Side – $35.8 million
- Old Dogs – $18 million
- 2012 – $15.8 million
- Disney’s A Christmas Carol – $15.2 million
So my predictions are as follows:
- The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $42.5 million
- The Blind Side – $40.1 million
- 2012 – $18 million
- Old Dogs – $16.8 million
- Disney’s A Christmas Carol – $16 million
Scotty G’s Predictions Were Off By $11.6 million.
Next weekend does not bring us a big line-up of new releases. We have Armored, Brothers, and Everybody’s Fine. In limited release, Up In The Air with George Clooney will make its debut and try to capitalize on the buzz that it has built up at film festivals the past few months.
Until Next Friday.