Another terrible weekend of predictions from myself. I correctly predicted the #1 film, but did not get any of the other top five films in order. So let’s dissect the massacre.
Opening in 1st place was Disney’s A Christmas Carol with $31 million (I predicted it would be the #1 film with $55 million). The film had a per theatre average of $8,417 and had the highest theatre count of any film this weekend. This number is not good for anyone involved. The budget is reportedly around $200 million, and with marketing costs, you know the number is a lot higher. Although all seems negative in the land of Disney, I use the example of The Polar Express to help brighten everyone up. The Polar Express cost about $150 million to make and grossed only $23.3 million on its opening weekend. People said that it was a bomb, but it held up well over the weeks, built some word-of-mouth, and with the Christmas theme of the movie, got the family audiences into the theatres. Its final domestic gross was $162.7 million. I expect the same thing to happen with Disney’s A Christmas Carol, and I firmly believe that it will gross over $150 million when all is said and done. Time will tell.
In 2nd place is last week’s #1 film Michael Jackson’s This Is It with $14 million (I predicted it to be the #3 film with $9.2 million). The concert film held up well in its second weekend, as it was only off 39.7% and it had a per theatre average of $4,022. Its total gross stands at $57.8 million. Despite all the negative things that have been said and written about Michael Jackson, people are interested in him, and are willing to pay to see concert rehearsal footage of what was to be his last tour.
In 3rd place is The Men Who Stare At Goats with $13.3 million (I predicted that it would be the #6 film and gross $5 million). The film had a per theatre average of $5,448, and definitely used the star power of George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Jeff Bridges, and Kevin Spacey effectively in their marketing campaigns to sell the film. That was key, because the film got average reviews, so it has to rely on its cache and word-of-mouth to drum up and sustain business. What has surprised me is that I didn’t see a lot of promotion for the film leading up to it, but I have seen more advertising on TV now that the film has been released. My theory that people will not go to a movie because of a bad title also fell by the wayside this week. I’m only halfway through my analysis of the weekend, but trust me when I say that this was a very bad weekend for my ego.
In 4th place is The Fourth Kind with $12.5 million (I predicted a $6 million gross and a 5th place finish). The film had a per theatre average of $4,955 and overcame really bad reviews to have a decent opening. I give credit to the trailer and the premise of the film in getting people interested, and although I know they are not related, the film had a Paranormal Activity vibe to it with The Fourth Kind showing “actual events” and then dramatizing them. I definitely do not think that the film is going to hold up in the coming weeks, but I will admit that I was wrong in my prediction of its opening weekend.
In 5th place is Paranormal Activity with $8.6 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish with a gross of $9.7 million). The film had a $3,362 per theatre average and was down 47.5% from last weekend, which was the biggest drop the film has suffered over the course of its release. The hype is definitely dying down on the film, but it has been quite the phenomenon, and “The $15,000 Movie That Could” has now grossed $97.4 million.
In 6th place was The Box with a gross $7.8 million (I predicted it would be the #4 film with a gross of $7 million). The Box had a low per theatre average of $2,981, and will be on DVD shelves soon. Cameron Diaz must not be happy as this film opened lower than her other film from this year – My Sister’s Keeper. That film opened with $12.4 million; with a theatre count of only 2,606 (The Box had a theatre count of 2,635).
While my predictions were really bad this weekend, the real story is the film Precious: Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire. I wrote in my predictions that the film had a lot of hype going for it, as well as the support of Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry. All the buzz led the film to a gross of $1.8 million from only 18 theatres. That is a ridiculous per theatre average of $100,000, and the film landed in 13th place. Expect the buzz to grow over the coming weeks, as this film is going to be receiving a lot of attention.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
1) A Christmas Carol – $55 million
2) Paranormal Activity – $9.7 million
3) Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $9.2 million
4) The Box – $7 million
5) The Fourth Kind – $6 million
So to recap, here are my predictions:
1) A Christmas Carol – $31 million
2) Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $14 million
3) The Men Who Stare At Goats – $13.3 million
4) The Fourth Kind – $12.5 million
5) Paranormal Activity – $8.6 million
My Top Five Predictions Were Off By: $45.1 million
Next weekend brings us the disaster film 2012 and the comedy Pirate Radio. Come back next week for my predictions on those films! Until next week!