I have been making predictions for almost a year, and I can honestly say that this weekend was the worst weekend I have ever predicted. Of the predictions that I made, not one was correct. I was 0 for 5 in predicting where the top films would be, and I was only 3 for 5 for picking films in the top 5. Maybe this slaughter fits in with the theme of Halloween, but let’s just see how I badly I did.
Finishing in 1st place is the most-hyped film out in theatres right now – Paranormal Activity. The little film that could was up 12.1% from last weekend for a total of $22 million (I predicted it would finish at #2 with $27 million). Paranormal Activity had an excellent per theatre average of $11,311, and remember; this film has been out for 5 weeks and was only playing in 1,945 theatres (also remember that this film has been on Paramount’s shelf for almost two years). Paramount’s release strategy has worked out perfectly. It has built up word-of-mouth, and critics are also big fans of the film, and it has all added up to make Paranormal Activity a phenomenon. The total gross of the film now stands at $62.4 million, and $100 million is definitely a feasible goal.
In 2nd place is Saw VI with a gross of $14.7 million (I predicted it would finish at #1 with $28 million). The disappointing weekend for the film officially confirms that the franchise is running out of steam. Saw VI had the worst opening weekend in the franchise. Here are the numbers:
1) Saw III – $33.6 million opening weekend
2) Saw IV – $31.75 million opening weekend
3) Saw II – $31.72 million opening weekend
4) Saw V – $30 million opening weekend
5) Saw – $18.2 million opening weekend
6) Saw VI – $14.7 million opening weekend
Even though it posted the worst numbers for the franchise, the reported budget for Saw VI is $11 million, so it is still a profitable film. The per theatre average for the weekend was $4,874, and anytime a film opens in above 3,000 theatres (actual number 3,036 theatres) and has a per theatre average that is less than $5,000, then you know the film is not going to have a long life in theatres. So expect to see Saw VI on DVD shelves soon.
In 3rd place is Where The Wild Things Are with $14.4 million (I predicted it would be the #4 film with $14.67 million). The film suffered a big drop of 55.9% and it has a per theatre average of $3,861. This is not good for the film as it looks like audiences have not embraced it. It was still the marquee family film this weekend (even though reviews have said that the film is geared more towards adults), but families did not go out in large numbers to see it. That is disappointing because it was playing in the most theatres of any film this weekend with 3,735. The total gross of the film stands at $53.9 million.
In 4th place is Law Abiding Citizen with $12.7 million (I predicted it would finish outside the top five, and gross $10.5 million). Law Abiding Citizen held up very well from last weekend, as it only dropped 39.6%, so audiences have definitely embraced it. It’s per theatre average is $4,399, and this signifies to me that the film has got good word-of-mouth and will play well over the coming weeks. The total gross for Law Abiding Citizen stands at $40.3 million.
In 5th place is Couples Retreat with $11 million (I did not make a prediction as I did not think the film would finish anywhere near the top 5). The film continues to hold up well, despite terrible reviews. It has a per theatre average of $3,610, and the film was only down 35.6% from last weekend. So Couples Retreat shows again that audiences have embraced the film, and it has got great word-of-mouth (even if the people that I know who have seen it have said it’s not particularly funny). The total gross now stands at $78.2 million.
In my predictions, I said the big story of the week would be if Paranormal Activity hit the #1 spot, and trust me, that IS the big story. I would say the other story this week is how poorly the new releases fared this weekend.
In 6th place was Astro Boy with $7 million (I predicted it would be the #3 film with $15 million). Audiences did not care for the film at all as it had a per theatre average of $2,328 from 3,014 theatres. That truly is an awful per theatre average because of how many theatres were booked for the film. It will be on DVD shelves soon.
In 8th place was Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant with $6.3 million (I predicted it to be the #5 film with $11 million). With a rumoured budget of $40 million, this film will not make a profit, and will be out of the top ten by next weekend and will be on DVD shelves soon. I thought the Halloween release date was perfect for this film, but audiences did not think that. Fans of the book did not support it, nor did critics. It had a per theatre average of $2,305 from 2,754 theatres. When a film’s per theatre average is lower than the number of theatres it’s playing in, the word “bomb” comes to mind. Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant is a very disappointing release from Universal.
In limited release:
Amelia had a decent opening with $4 million from 818 theatres and a per theatre average of $4,921. The Hilary Swank/Mira Nair collaboration did all right, but I don’t know about the long term prospects (I’m leaning towards this film not doing very well at the box office). We’ll have to wait and see.
The Nightmare Before Christmas 3-D grossed $131,000 from 105 theatres for a per theatre average of $1,248. Not a bad number considering the film has been re-released a couple of times.
Motherhood grossed $57,700 from 48 theatres for a per theatre average of $1,202. Expect the Uma Thurman film to hit DVD shelves soon.
Antichrist grossed $73,500 from 6 theatres for a per theatre average of $12,250. The controversial Lars Von Trier film did all right considering the mixed reaction the film has received, and the fact that the subject matter is definitely not for everyone.
Ong Bak 2 has not released its weekend numbers as of this writing.
So, to recap here are my predictions:
1) Saw VI – $28 million
2) Paranormal Activity – $27 million
3) Astro Boy – $15 million
4) Where The Wild Things Are – $14.67 million
5) Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant – $11 million
So, to recap here are my predictions:
1) Paranormal Activity – $22 million
2) Saw VI – $14.7 million
3) Where The Wild Things Are – $14.4 million
4) Law Abiding Citizen – $12.7 million
5) Couples Retreat – $11 million
Scotty G’s Top Five Predictions were off by $31.27 million.
Next weekend we have Michael Jackson’s This Is It, Gentlemen Broncos, The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day, and The House of the Devil. Check back next Friday for my predictions.
Until next week!