Another strong weekend of predictions for myself. I correctly guessed all 5 films in the top 5, I was off on the placement of two films, and my predictions were off by a combined $8.7 million. Let’s look at the numbers.
Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs opened at #1 with $30.1 million (I predicted $26 million and for it to be the #1 film). It had an excellent per theatre average of $9,651. The film benefitted from two things. The first being it was shown in 3-D at some theatres, which costs more to see, thus boosting the gross. The second is that it was the first major family film to come out since Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. Sony picked an excellent date to open the film as it never had to compete against any of the other films in September, and it has a clear path for the next couple of weeks. Reviews were glowing for the film, so expect the film to hold up well over the coming weeks, as the only major competition the film will have is in early October when Toy Story and Toy Story 2 get re-released in theatres.
In 2nd place is Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant! with a gross of $10.5 million (I predicted a gross of $11 million, and for it to be the #2 film). The adult comedy-drama of a whistle-blower had strong reviews and an excellent pedigree, which made adults turn out. There is a negative because the per theatre average was only $4,210. A film that does not have a per theatre average of over $5,000 in its opening weekend is a sign that it may struggle in the weeks ahead. In fact, the #3 and #4 films have a higher per theatre average than The Informant! It will be interesting to see what the word-of-mouth for the film is, and how well it will do going forward.
In 3rd place is Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself with a gross of $10 million (I predicted a gross of $9.5 million and that it would be the #3 film). The film dropped 57.1% from last weekend which is on par with the 2nd weekend of most every Tyler Perry film. It had a per theatre average of $4,464 this weekend. I expect this film to play like Perry’s other films, and at the end of the day, it will have a nice run making the film a modest hit. The film has now grossed $37.9 million in two weeks.
In 4th place is the romance Love Happens with a gross of $8.4 million (I predicted a gross of $6 million and for it to be the #5 film). The film overcame mediocre reviews to have a decent but unspectacular debut. Its per theatre average was $4,455, so it will have the same issues as The Informant! as it continues to play in the coming weeks. Universal did not put a lot of effort into releasing the film, as it felt like they knew they had a bad film on their hands by giving the film a small release of only 1,898 theatres. I expect this to be on the DVD shelves soon.
In 5th place is the horror-comedy Jennifer’s Body with a gross of $6.8 million (I predicted a gross of $8 million, and for it to be the #4 film). The film had a terrible per theatre average of $2,517. Adding to that fact, it had the second highest theatre count of any film this weekend, so expectations were that it would do a lot better. This is the 3rd horror film in two weeks to have bombed, and of the last five horror films (The Final Destination, Halloween II, Sorority Row, Whiteout and Jennifer’s Body), only The Final Destination can be called a hit, while the other four films are all duds. So we now no the answer to the question: Can Megan Fox open a film? The answer is a resounding NO! Expect this film to turn up on DVD shelves shortly.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs – $26 million
2) The Informant! – $11 million
3) Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $9.5 million
4) Jennifer’s Body – $8 million
5) Love Happens – $6 million
And here were the actual numbers:
1) Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs – $30.1 million
2) The Informant! – $10.5 million
3) Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $10 million
4) Love Happens – $8.4 million
5) Jennifer’s Body – $6.8 million
Scott’s Predictions were off by $8.7 million
Next weekend brings us Surrogates, Fame, and Pandorum. Check back next Friday to read my predictions for those films!