Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of September 18, 2009


Four new releases come to theatres this weekend, and all four of them have a realistic shot of being in the top 5.  Here’s how I think they will do.

Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs opens this week, and has a very good shot of being the #1 film in the land.  Based on the children’s book, the film is receiving great reviews, as it currently stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes.  The film is also in 3-D, so that will bump up the box office.  The only negative is that the film is coming out in September, which is not a big box office month.  This is the first family film that should make a big dent at the box office since Ice Age:  Dawn of the Dinosaurs.  Opening in 3,199 theatres, I’m predicting Cloudy With The Chance of Meatballs to open with $26 million.

Megan Fox, Amanda Seyfried, and writer Diablo Cody team up to bring us Jennifer’s Body.  I will be interested to see how the film does this weekend, as this is Megan Fox’s first starring role, so the question is can she open a film?  I’m going to say no.  Last weekend, we had two horror films fail to crack the top 5, and because the movies that are released are so weak right now, Jennifer’s Body will crack the Top 5, but it will not be a big hit.  Reviews will not help as the film is currently at 41% at Rotten Tomatoes.  Opening in 2,702 theatres, Jennifer’s Body will open with $8 million.

Matt Damon and Steven Soderbergh team up again with The Informant!  The trailer of the film make it look like a comedy, but from what I read is that it is a very quirky film, and may not appeal to everyone.  Damon has star power so he will draw in the adults, and reviews have been good, with Rotten Tomatoes listing it at 77%.  Opening in 2,505 theatres, The Informant! will gross $11 million.

The final new release this weekend is Love Happens.  Starring Aaron Eckhart and Jennifer Aniston the film intrigues me only because the trailer seemed to spoil everything that would happen in the film.  Reviews have been awful with Rotten Tomatoes listing it at 16%, and Universal is not doing a big push on the film as it is only being released in 1,898 theatres.  With the low theatre count, the film will not to big box office, and should open with $6 million.

Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself should be the only film from last weekend to stay in the top 5.  Perry’s films usually have big drops in their second weekend.  See below:

2006 – Madea’s Family Reunion – 57.9% drop

2007 – Daddy’s Little Girls – 57% drop

2007 – Why Did I Get Married – 42.9% drop

2008 – Meet The Browns – 62.7% drop

2008 – The Family That Preys – 58.2% drop

2009 – Madea Goes To Jail – 60.6% drop

With the exception of Why Did I Get Married, every Tyler Perry film has suffered a 57% drop or higher.  I’m predicting a 59% drop for this film for a gross of $9.5 million.

The only other interesting thing is that the film 9 is adding 399 theatres, which is great for a film that didn’t even open at #1.

So to recap, my predictions for this weekend are as follows:

1) Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs – $26 million

2) The Informant! – $11 million

3) Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $9.5 million

4) Jennifer’s Body – $8 million

5) Love Happens – $6 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did.

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