Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 31st

There is only one major release that looks to have any traction at the box office this weekend, and that is Judd Apatow’s 3rd film – Funny People. Adam Sandler, Leslie Mann, Seth Rogen, and Eric Bana star in this comedy-drama about a comedian who gets a second chance on life. The question is, how will people respond at the box office?

First – People like Apatow directed films. Just look at his previous two efforts:

2005 The 40-Year-Old Virgin – Opening Weekend – $21.4 million//Final Gross – $109.4 million

2007 Knocked Up – Opening Weekend – $30.6 million//Final Gross – $148.7 million

Second – Adam Sandler also has a strong following at the box office. Like him or not, his films make money. Just look at his previous two efforts, which many people don’t consider to be his best efforts:

2008 You Don’t Mess With The Zohan – Opening Weekend – $38.5 million//Final Gross – $100 million

2008 Bedtime Stories – Opening Weekend – $27.4 million//Final Gross – $110.1 million

The question is do people want to see a comedy-drama, with more emphasis on the drama, starring Adam Sandler? For the opening weekend, I will say they do. The film is good, but not great, and critics like, but do not love the film. It has a long running time of 2h20m for this type of film, but I think the star power is strong enough to have a decent opening. Opening in 3,008 theatres, I’m predicting Funny People to open with $38 million.

G-Force had a strong opening weekend, but will there be no repeat business. Kids will still want to see it, but I can’t see it doing well in its second weekend. I’m predicting a 55% drop for a gross of $14.2 million.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince had a disturbing second week drop, which was the second highest in franchise history. Unfortunately, I think another big drop is going to happen this weekend. Even though it is still battling with G-Force as the kids film to see, the buzz has seemed to vanish from the film. Dropping 60%, I predict the film will gross $11.7 million.

The Ugly Truth had a great opening weekend, even though it finished in third place, but the question this weekend will be, do audiences want to see Funny People or The Ugly Truth? They are both going after the same demographic, so we’ll see what wins. I think The Ugly Truth will have a decent hold, and I’m predicting it to be the #4 film at the box office this weekend, with a 60% drop for a gross of $11 million.

In 5th spot, I’m predicting another new film to launch with disappointing results. Aliens in the Attic is being released by Fox, and I really have not seen much marketing for the film. I don’t think most people have even heard of it, to be honest, yet it is getting the widest release of any new release this weekend in 3,106 theatres. I’m predicting Fox will be very disappointed on Sunday, when they see that the film has only gross $8 million.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Funny People – $38 million

2) G-Force – $14.2 million

3) Harry Potter/The Half-Blood Prince – $11.7 million

4) The Ugly Truth – $11 million

5) Aliens in the Attic – $8 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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