Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 3rd, 2009

The age old debate will be answered this weekend. The question that children and adults alike have debated since the dawn of time. That question is – which is cooler: dinosaurs or robots? We will find out this weekend as Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs takes on Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in an all out, no holds barred grudge match. And just to make it more of a main event, it falls on the Independence Day weekend.

Let’s start with the challenger. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs launches in 4,099 theatres this weekend, and will also be shown in 3-D in selected theatres. Ice Age is a solid brand for 20th Century Fox. The first film was a surprise hit in 2002, grossing $46.3 million on its opening weekend for a final tally of $176.3 million. Ice Age: The Meltdown opened in 2006 with $68 million on its way to a total of $195.3 million. The question is, will Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs have the biggest opening and overall gross of the trilogy. It got off to a good start on Wednesday, as it was the number one film in the land with a gross of $13.7 million. While Up is not going to pose a threat because it has been out for over a month, and as much as Fox has hyped the film, I don’t think it will have a bigger opening then Ice Age: The Meltdown. The main reason is that there is much more competition this time around. Also, reviews have not been kind, with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 35%, but reviews will not effect the film in the short term. I’m predicting a weekend gross of $62 million. Still strong, but I think the major competition and poor reviews will cause problems in the long term for the film.

And now, the champion. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen had a monster opening weekend, but it has been getting terrible reviews, so now we’ll see how strong the word of mouth is. It’s still in the most theatres with 4,234, and it was right up there on Wednesday when Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs opened, grossing $10.9 million. So the question raised now is how big a drop will Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen suffer. The first film dropped 47.5% from its opening weekend, and I think this film will suffer an even bigger decline, because of how high the up front demand was. I’m predicting Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen will fall 60% for a total of $43.6 million.

Johnny Depp, Christian Bale, and Michael Mann team up to bring the adult drama Public Enemies. It was smart timing to release this film as we have been missing a good adult drama from the marketplace this summer. Johnny Depp and Christian Bale are big stars, but unfortunately their star power will not make the film open in the Top 2 spots. It’s going to have to settle for the #3 spot. Public Enemies opened on Wednesday to a very good $8.1 million, and it will see its numbers go up this weekend. Reviews have been good, but not great, and it is getting a wide release as it will be in 3,334 theatres. There has been a lot of marketing for the film, but I have not been a fan of the trailers of it. We’ll see how it does this weekend. I’m predicting a gross of $34 million.

The Proposal and The Hangover will be battling out for the four and five positions. I’m predicting The Proposal will drop 43% for a gross of $10.5 million, while The Hangover will have another low drop-off of 35% and gross $11 million.

To recap, here are my predictions:

1) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $62 million
2) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $43.6 million
3) Public Enemies – $34 million
4) The Hangover – $11 million
5) The Proposal – $10.5 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I do!

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