Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 26, 2009

It’s arguably the most anticipated summer film of 2009. Michael Bay’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened on Wednesday with an estimated $60.6 million dollars, making it the second largest opening day for a film EVER. So the question is, how well does it hold up over the weekend? Reviews have been terrible, with Rotten Tomatoes currently listing it at 22% positive. This will not help it over the long term, as last year’s blockbuster The Dark Knight was able to have tremendous legs, because it was a very good film. Transformers: ROTF will have a large up front demand, and it shouldn’t have too much trouble crossing the $100 million barrier just on Friday-Sunday alone. Having said that, no film has ever grossed over $100 million dollars when it opened on a Wednesday. Think of this, Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix both opened on a Wednesday and scored massive box office on their opening day, but when the Friday-Sunday came, and it was days 3, 4, and 5 of their release, the demand was not as strong as Wednesday. People want to see a mindless summer film, as the month of June has been dry of that. Transformers: RATF fills that void, and I’m predicting with its wide launch of 4,234 theatres the film will gross $115 million dollars this weekend.

The Proposal looks to have a small decline in its second weekend of release, and to be honest I think the decline will be more moderate than small. The reviews have not been great, but the one thing it has going for it is that it is really the only major date flick movie out right now. It will lose some of its audience because of Transformers: RATF, so I’m predicting a 45% drop for a gross of $18.4 million.

The Hangover continues to have strong holds every weekend, and I think it might lose a bit more than normal because of Transformers: RATF, but it will still be very strong. Dropping 32%, The Hangover should gross $18.1 million.

Up has also posted tremendous holds each weekend, and I think it will perform much like The Hangover this weekend. Dropping 35%, Up should gross $15.2 million

There is another new release opening this weekend, and it is female counter-programming to the Transformers. My Sister’s Keeper is a heavy drama starring Cameron Diaz and Abigail Breslin. The commercials make you know that the females will need to bring Kleenex, as they are probably going to shed some tears. Reviews have not been that good for the film, as Rotten Tomatoes has it listed at 41% positive, and reviews make a difference for dramas. Opening in 2,606 theatres, I’m predicting My Sister’s Keeper opens with $12 million.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $115 million
2) The Proposal – $18.4 million
3) The Hangover – $18.1 million
4) Up – $15.2 million
5) My Sister’s Keeper – $12 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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