Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Friday June 19th

Two new releases open at the box office this weekend, and it will be interesting to see if either of them are able to dethrone the current champion The Hangover, or if they are able to beat two time runner-up Up.

Year One is the first new release of the weekend starring Jack Black and Michael Cera. Directed by Harold Ramis and produced by Judd Apatow, the film follows the story of two losers back in the year one. Reviews have been less than kind, with the script being criticized the most for its very lame jokes. So with the reviews being poor, the power of Jack Black and Michael Cera’s star power will be put to the test. Jack Black’s highest grossing live action film is 2003’s School of Rock, which grossed $81.2 million, and his second higest is 2006’s Nacho Libre, which grossed $80.1 million. Black’s highest grossing film where he is the lead is Kung Fu Panda, which grossed $215 million, while the highest grossing film he has appeared in is King Kong with $218 million in total gross. Year One should not reach those numbers. Opening in 3,022 theatres, I expect Year One to gross $15 million.

Ryan Reynolds and Sandra Bullock star in The Proposal. The trailer sums this film up very well. Sandra Bullock is a Canadian who is working in the U.S.A. She is about to be deported, but when she finds out, she says she is going to marry her co-worker, who despises her. She goes with him to visit his parents in Alaska, and you should be able to figure out the rest from there. Reynolds and Bullock have more star power than Black and Cera, so it should have a better opening. Plus it’s a date film, and with Ghosts of Girlfriends Past finishing up its run, it does not have any real competition. It’s the only film in the marketplace of its kind, it has a generic premise that should appeal to mass audiences, and reviews have been mixed, which is not a huge factor for date films. Opening in 3,056 theatres, I expect The Proposal to gross $27 million.

The Hangover looks to hold on to the top spot, but it will be hard pressed to beat The Proposal. The film has posted incredible holds in its two weekends of release, and I expect another spectacular hold, as I predict it will only drop 30% from last weekend for a gross of $22.8 million.

Up has a very good shot of spending its third week in the runner-up spot, and I’m predicting it will. It crossed the $200 million mark on Thursday and is the second highest grossing film of 2009 behind Star Trek. It is still in the most theatres of all the films this weekend (3,832), word of mouth is incredible, and it is arguably the best film of 2009 [so far]. I’m predicting it will drop 25% for a gross of $23 million.

The Taking of Pelham 123 had a decent debut last weekend, but the buzz has faded on the movie, and it will look to play out its run. I do not expect a strong hold for this film, and I am predicting a drop of 55% for a gross of $10.4 million.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) The Proposal – $27 million
2) Up – $23 million
3) The Hangover – $22.8 million
4) Year One – $15 million
5) The Taking of Pelham 123 – $10.4 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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