Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

Another pretty successful weekend of predictions from me. I’d say I was relatively close on predictions for 4 out of the 5 films. That’s an 80%, and I would take that passing a test. I predicted all 5 films that would be in the Top 5 this weekend, with 3 out of the 5 being correctly put in the spot that they finished. The most that I was off in a prediction this weekend was $7.2 million.

Up was the big winner to round out the end of May grossing $68.2 million [I predicted $65 million], and a per theatre average of $18,109. It was the third highest opening in Pixar history [not counting for inflation], behind The Incredibles’ $70.4 million and Finding Nemo’s $70.2 million. I really do think the film is going to have a solid run this summer. There are other big blockbusters that will go in competition with Up, but the movie appeals to every demographic, and with that kind of appeal, this could be one of the Top 5 films of the summer. We’ll see.

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian took a 52.9% drop to gross $25.5 million [I predicted $28 million]. That’s a pretty decent hold for a blockbuster film in its second weekend, and it is also impressive because it was in direct competition with Up this weekend. It also passed the $100 million mark this weekend, with a total gross of $105 million. Night at the Museum 2 looks like it will have legs, and is proving its detractors wrong, as I bet most people thought that Terminator: Salvation would out gross it.

Drag Me To Hell opened at #3 with $16.6 million [I predicted a #5 opening with $18 million]. The number is a little less than some other horror films that have opened around this time [most notably The Strangers gross of $21 million this time last year], but the opening is a good start. Its per theatre average was $6,630, so that is impressive as well. The thing what amazes me the most about the film is the glowing reviews. Sam Raimi went back to a genre he knows very well, and might have made the best horror film of 2009. All things considered, Drag Me To Hell looks like a minor hit for Universal, so they should be happy.

Terminator: Salvation took a 62.1% hit this weekend and fell to #4 at the box office with a total of $16.1 million. [I predicted $18.1 million] It still has not passed the $100 million mark, as it currently stands at $90.6 million, and because it did not have a strong hold its second weekend, it looks to fade away quickly. Reviews were not good, and there is not a lot of positive word-of-mouth buzz on it. Warner Bros. must be disappointed, especially since reports are that the film cost $200 million. The film needs to do much better overseas.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the year’s biggest hit so far – Star Trek, with a gross of $12.8 million [I predicted $19 million, and this was the film I was off most by with its gross. I thought it would be the #3 film this weekend]. The film has become the first of 2009 to pass the $200 million mark with a total gross of $209.5 million.

So my weekend predictions were:

1) Up – $65 million
2) Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $28 million
3) Star Trek – $19 million
4) Terminator: Salvation – $18.1 million
5) Drag Me To Hell – $18 million

The actual numbers are:

1) Up – $68.2 million
2) Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $25.5 million
3) Drag Me To Hell – $16.6 million
4) Terminator: Salvation – $16.1 million
5) Star Trek – $12.8 million

All and all, not a bad week of predictions. Come back next week to see what my predictions are for Land of the Lost and The Hangover. Until then!

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