Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions: Weekend of Friday April 10, 2009

Hannah Montana invades movie theatres with Hannah Montana: The Movie. The performance of this film interests me, because I can’t compare it to her previous concert movie. Hannah Montana: Best Of Both Worlds was put in limited release, was originally only supposed to run for a week, and had ticket prices jacked up. It all culminated with a $31.1 million dollar opening. Then the Jonas Brothers released their concert movie this year and it flopped, opening with just $12 million [its current gross is over $19 million]. So I can’t use the concert movies as a basis of comparison. The next closest Disney property would be High School Musical 3 which debut with $42 million, and had a large pre-existing fan base. Its fan base was also bigger because it was a sequel, which tend to have bigger openings then their predecessors. HSM3 played differently because the first two films were TV Movies, but I stand by my theory. High School Musical has 3 movies, but Hannah Montana has many episodes. The question we will find out this weekend is if the franchise has peaked, and this film should have been made last year, or is it stronger than ever? As it is a long weekend, I’m thinking kids will drag their parents to see Hannah Montana, and that will lead it into the #1 position. Early reviews have not been kind, but this movie is critic proof. I’m going to predict a conservative opening of $38 million.

Seth Rogen returns to theatres with Observe and Report. It’s being summed up in the media as an R-Rated Paul Blart: Mall Cop. I’m sure Observe and Report is hoping for better reviews than Paul Blart, but to equal its box office gross [Early reviews have been decent]. I know this film will not make anywhere close to Paul Blart, but Seth Rogen will again be put to the test as a leading man. Knocked Up made a ton of money, but Judd Apatow seems to be credited with that film’s success. Rogen’s last starring role was in Zach and Miri Make A Porno, and it opened at just over $10 million. I predict Observe and Report will open in that range, and gross $10.5 million.

I mentioned about Hannah Montana finding out whether or not the film should have been released last year, and if the franchise has topped out. Well Dragonball Z Evolution opens this weekend, and I can safely say that this film should have been released years ago, when Dragonball was a big deal. It’s too little, too late, and there is not much interest in this movie. I’m predicting an opening weekend of $4 million.

For holdovers, Fast and Furious will be trying to stay #1 for a second week, but I think it will fall short and gross, suffer a drop of 60% and gross $28 million.

Monsters vs. Aliens should hold up well over the long weekend, although it will have competition from Hannah Montana. I’m predicting it will gross $18 million this weekend.

Also, I believe this weekend will finally be the weekend that I Love You, Man makes more money than Knowing. It’s been performing better throughout the week, and I’m prediciting it to land in the #5 spot with $5 million.

So here are my predictions:

1) Hannah Montana: The Movie – $38 million
2) Fast and Furious – $28 million
3) Monsters vs. Aliens – $18 million
4) Observe and Report – $10.5 million
5) I Love You, Man – $5 million

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