After weeks of being way off on the opening numbers at the box office, I hit a bulls-eye! At least on the number 1 movie. Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $58.2 million and a per screen average of over $14,000. It was a solid opening that was no doubt enhanced by the number of people who saw it in 3-D. It was well marketed, it’s got a strong cast that would draw in the adults, and reviews were positive. Monsters vs. Aliens should do well over the next month until the summer blockbusters start.
A surprising 2nd place finish for The Haunting in Connecticut. I was way off in my prediction, as the film grossed $23 million, and also had a strong per theatre average of $8,422. Reviews were not kind, but there seems to be an appetite for hour films in 2009. It exceeded most analysts’ predictions. We’ll see how it holds over the coming weeks, as most horror movies have big drop offs in the second weekend [See Friday the 13th as an example]. Still a $23 million opening is impressive/
Knowing dropped to 3rd with $14.7 million. Not a bad drop from its opening weekend, as it fell 40%. This seems to indicate that people have generally liked the film, as I expected it to have a bigger drop.
Suffering the smallest decline in the top 10 was the number 4 film I Love You, Man. Dropping only 29.3% from its opening weekend, I Love You, Man grossed $12.6 million. This is a good sign for the long term success of the film, as any time you have a hold of less than 30% you know the studio is going to be happy.
The number 5 film Duplicity dropped almost 46% from its opening weekend for a gross $7.5 million. The adult caper was hoping to have a better hold this weekend, as adult films usually do not have strong openings, but tend to hold up better over the long term. Unfortunately for Duplicity it looks like it will not have a long run in theatres.
John Cena’s 12 Rounds opened at #7 with $5.3 million which was a little more than my prediction of $5 million. The film should do better on DVD.
As a side note, Watchmen cracked the $100 million mark this week, but it goes to show how wrong analysts could be. If you were to ask people, what movie would make more – Watchmen or Taken – I’m sure the majority of people would say Watchmen by a landslide. After 4 weeks Watchmen, is the #8 film in the land grossing $2.75 million for a total of $103.2 million, and after 9 weeks, Taken is the #9 film grossing $2.7 million for a total of $137 million. It goes to show that audiences and analysts are not always in sync with one another.
Overall, not a bad week. I correctly predicted the 5 movies in the top 5, just not in the correct order. I was very close in my estimates with Monsters vs. Aliens and Duplicity, but not close at all with the other 3 films. The box office was stronger than expected this weekend up 58% from this time last year.
So here were my predictions for the week:
1) Monsters vs. Aliens – $58 million
2) I Love You, Man – $10.7 million
3) Knowing – $9.25 million
4) The Haunting in Connecticut – $8 million
5) Duplicity – $7 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) Monsters vs. Aliens – $58.2 million
2) The Haunting in Connecticut – $23 million
3) Knowing – $14.7 million
4) I Love You, Man – $12 million
5) Duplicity – $7.5 million
Next week brings us Fast and Furious and Adventureland. Until next weekend!