Scotty G’s Weekend Box Office Predictions – Weekend of March 27, 2009

This weekend, anyone with half a brain can pick what the #1 film at the box office will be. The question is how much will it make?

Monsters vs. Aliens invades theatres this weekend with an impressive marketing campaign that has made most everyone aware about the film’s existence. The voice talent is top notch. Reese Witherspoon, Seth Rogen, Kiefer Sutherland, Hugh Laurie, and Stephen Colbert all lend their talents, plus the film is in 3-D. This will definitely help the film’s gross as movies in 3-D mean higher price tickets. The only animated film I would compare this movie with would be Ice Age 2: The Meltdown, which opened on March 31, 2006 and made $68 million in its opening weekend. Dreamworks last two films – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Kung Fu Panda opened in the fall and summer of last year to grosses of $63.1 and $60.2 million respectively. Ice Age 2 and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa had the advantage of being sequels, so there were was more anticipation and up front demand. Even with the 3-D, I think the numbers will fall just short of Kung Fu Panda’s opening weekend, so I predict an opening weekend of $58 million Monsters vs. Aliens.

The Haunting in Connecticut also debuts this weekend, but it’s a horror film that’s too late to the game. With Friday the 13th and The Last House on The Left being the recent releases in the genre, I think fans of horror need a brake. Horror fans should not like the fact that the film is rated PG-13 instead of the rating that most horror films should be – R [I’m sure the studio thinks this will allow more people to see the film]. I predict that The Haunting in Connecticut will open with $8 million.

WWE Superstar John Cena returns to the screen with 12 Rounds. Although I like the premise, and Renny Harlin is directing it [no bashing Renny Harlin, as Die Hard 2: Die Harder and The Long Kiss Goodnight or great action movies]. Unfortunately Renny has not had a hit in ages, and I don’t see much anticipation for John Cena’s latest. Cena’s last film The Marine opened with $7.1 million. I think 12 Rounds opens with less than that before finding and audience on DVD. I predict 12 Rounds opens at $5 million.

Knowing and I Love You, Man have been in a tight battle all week as the top 2 films, so they should see similar grosses. I’m going to say that I Love You Man, will win this weekend.

So here are my predictions:

1) Monsters vs. Aliens – $58 million
2) I Love You, Man – $10.7 million
3) Knowing – $9.25 million
4) The Haunting in Connecticut – $8 million
5) Duplicity – $7 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I do!

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