Another weekend of predictions, and another weekend where my skills have been humbled.
I didn’t think the Nicholas Cage film Knowing interested a lot of people. I did not hear a lot of buzz about it, and I didn’t particularly think the film was being pushed hard by the studio in its ad campaign. Shows how little I know. Knowing opened strong with $24.8 million and had the best per theatre average in the top 10 at $7,447. This opening has to be considered a bit of surprise, but it’s definitely a victory for this film, because I don’t think anyone predicted it to open as strong as it did.
I Love You, Man had a good start as well with $18 million. The film opened between what Role Models and Forgetting Sarah Marshall had in their opening weekends [$19.2 and $17.7 respectively]. It should play like them as well, and probably end its run with over $60 million. My prediction was a little too strong for how it would do, as I thought it would have some momentum from the films mentioned above, and there has been an aggressive marketing campaign for the film.
Duplicity opened at #3, and of the three wide releases that opened this weekend, I’m shocked that this came in at #3 with $14.4 million. It also had the lowest per theatre average of the three new releases, so this has to be considered a disappointment. Has Julia Roberts star power started to fade? It’s too bad, because I thought Duplicity had a lot going for it with the cast. It was a film that I thought would appeal to adults, which have not had a film targeting them in awhile. I thought the ad campaign was decent in getting the word out, but not a strong turn out at all.
Race To Witch Mountain had a 46.7% drop from its #1 opening, and fell to #4 with $13 million. I’m sure Disney was hoping for a stronger hold in its second weekend, but it was not to be. I was pretty close in terms of box office gross this weekend, but not in its ranking
Watchmen only grossed $6.7 million and is #5 at the box office. It suffered the biggest drop of any of the top 10 films dropping 62.3% from last weekend. Its gross is just shy of $100 million, but you know the studio was hoping the domestic take would be a lot more than $100 million at this point. I’m not going to call Watchmen a flop, but I think it has suffered from high expectations.
So let’s compare the #’s!
Here were my predictions:
1) Duplicity – $25 million
2) I Love You, Man – $22 million
3) Race To Witch Mountain – $14 million
4) Knowing – $8 million
5) Watchmen – $5.1 million
Here are the actual #’s:
1) Knowing – $24.8 million
2) I Love You, Man – $18 million
3) Duplicity – $14.4 million
4) Race To Witch Mountain – $13 million
5) Watchmen – $6.7 million
Another big film opens this Friday with Monsters vs. Aliens. We’ll see how well it does against other newcomers The Haunting in Connecticut and 12 Rounds. Check back later in the week to see my predictions!