Scotty G’s Weekend Box Office Preview – Weekend of March 20, 2009

It will be a battle of old audiences vs. younger audiences this weekend as Duplicity takes on I Love You, Man to be crowned champion of the box office.

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Duplicity has a good pedigree. Julia Roberts and Clive Owen in an adult film. Both actors are in their comfort zone, and audiences like them in these type of films. Tony Gilroy directs, and he is best known for directing Michael Clayton. On paper, this looks to be a good film with the biggest star power of the weekend, which will help draw audiences in. Early reviews have been positive, and since older audiences tend to rely on reviews more, Duplicity should be #1 this weekend grossing $25 million.

I Love You, Man stars Paul Rudd and Jason Segel in a film that their target audience likes. Rudd’s last film Role Models opened with $19.2 million and Segel’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with $17.7 million. Both films made over $60 million. Their star power has risen, so I think this film will open higher than “Role Models” and “Forgetting Sarah Marshall”. I predict I Love You, Man opens at #2 with $22 million.

Nicholas Cage is a star whose power has faded with recent films. Bangkok Dangerous and Next did little to ignite the box office. His latest film Knowing is about the end of the world, and I just don’t feel that there is that much excitement about it. I predict it will open with $8 million.

Race To Witch Mountain will have a decent hold as it’s been the #1 movie so far this week, and Watchmen will continue to tumble.

So here are my predictions:

1) Duplicity – $25 million
2) I Love You, Man – $22 million
3) Race To Witch Mountain – $14 million
4) Knowing – $8 million
5) Watchmen – $5.1 million

Check back on Sunday to see how the actual numbers!

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