Category Archives: Scotty G
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two hits movie theatres this weekend and will look to set a franchise best in terms of opening weekend gross. The other new release of the weekend will be going after younger audiences as Walt Disney Pictures releases the animated adventure Winnie the Pooh. All the other films in the top five are just hoping that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two does not cut into their box office gross too much. Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two opens this weekend and the anticipation to see the finale of the popular franchise is at an all-time high. The final installment follows Harry, Ron and Hermione battling the Death Eaters one last time with Harry and Voldemort having their long awaited showdown in a battle of good vs. evil. Fans of the books cannot wait to see the pages come to life, fans of the movies are just plain excited and Warner Bros. is ecstatic by the prospect of making a ton of money on this film. Just to take a look back at the franchise, here is how all the films in the series have done on their opening weekend:
Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $90.2 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $88.3 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $93.6 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $102.6 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $77.1 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $77.8 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One – $125 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $93.5 million
I think it is safe to say that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two should shatter the record for highest opening weekend in the franchise. It also has the benefit of being shown in 3-D which will drive up ticket prices. The only other time I can think of a comparable film, where fans were excited to see the final installment in a franchise, is Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith because everyone wanted to see that film to witness Anakin Skywalker become Darth Vader. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith grossed $108.4 million on its opening weekend back in 2005 and that was by far and away the highest grossing opening weekend in the franchise, surpassing the $64.8 million of Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace. As mentioned earlier, people want to see the final battle between Harry and Voldemort, so it makes sense that this film will have a massive opening weekend. What is also amazing is that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two is receiving the best reviews of the entire franchise as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 97% positive as of this writing. The glowing reviews are definitely going to help the film out at the box office in the long run. I’m going out on a limb on my prediction, but here it is. Opening in 4,375 theatres (which is the third highest theatre release count of all time), I’m predicting that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two will gross $154 million this weekend, giving it a first place finish at the box office and the 2nd highest opening weekend of all time.
Winnie the Pooh is released as counter-programming by Walt Disney Pictures this weekend for audiences that are a little too young to see wizards do battle. The film is based on three short stories about Winnie the Pooh and mainly follows Pooh, Tigger, Kanga, Little Roo, Rabbit, Piglet and Owl on a quest to save Christopher Robin. When making my prediction for Winnie the Pooh, I took a look at the previous Winnie the Pooh related films and how they did on their opening weekend. They are below:
2000 – The Tigger Movie – $9.4 million opening weekend
2003 – Piglet’s Big Movie – $6 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $7.7 million
I don’t know how successful Winnie the Pooh will be this weekend because Disney seems to be dumping this film onto audiences as it’s getting a low theatre count of 2,405 theatres. Usually films that are not good get treated like this, but Winnie the Pooh is getting love from the critics as it has an 88% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. I’m going to play it safe and stick with the average listed above. I’m predicting that Winnie the Pooh will gross $7.5 million and finish in 6th place.
Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon held up well in its second week, but I think the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two will cause Transformers: Dark of the Moon to have a bigger drop off this weekend, than it did last weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 55% this weekend, giving Transformers: Dark of the Moon a gross of $21.2 million and a 2nd place finish.
Horrible Bosses had an excellent debut last weekend, surprising a lot of people with its strong performance. I think it has a great chance to have a strong hold this weekend, as this will be the counter-programming film that adults will want to see instead of the film about wizards. I’m predicting that Horrible Bosses drops 41%, giving the film a gross of $19.5 million and a 3rd place finish.
Zookeeper had a disappointing debut last weekend, even though it did gross $20 million. I think the premise of the film turned a lot of people off, as the trailers for the film did look bad. I thought Kevin James had built up enough star power to get the film a higher gross, but I was wrong. I think the word-of-mouth and terrible reviews will definitely hurt Zookeeper this weekend, so I’m predicting a drop of 53%, which will give the film a gross of $9.4 million and a 4th place finish.
Cars 2 will also be hurt by the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two this weekend because audiences will prefer to see the newest big blockbuster instead of one that will be in its fourth weekend of release. It will also be losing some 3-D screens to the wizard film, and that takes away from its box office gross. I’m predicting that Cars 2 will drop 45%, giving the film a gross of $8.4 million and a 5th place finish.
In limited release the following films are opening: Daylight; Life, Above All; Salvation Boulevard; Snow Flower and the Secret Fan and Tabloid.
Daylight, Life, Above All and Tabloid all have ratings above 80% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two – $154 million
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $21.2 million
Horrible Bosses – $19.5 million
Zookeeper – $9.4 million
Cars 2 – $8.4 million
Think you can do better than me in making predictions? Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”. Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
Rango – This film is an animated adventure that features the voice talent of Johnny Depp and is directed by Gore Verbinski, who is probably best known for directing the first three installments of the “Pirates of the Caribbean” trilogy. Rango is about a chameleon that ends up in an old west town called “Dirt”, where he is encouraged by the locals to stand up to the outlaws of the town, including the evil Rattlesnake Jake. The film was a hit at the box office this spring and with the star power of Depp, I’m sure it will be a hit on DVD as well. This film will be released on DVD shelves on Friday.
The Lincoln Lawyer – This film stars Matthew McConaughey and is about a criminal lawyer who works out of his Lincoln sedan. He defends common criminals and most of his cases are just middle of the road, until he lands the case of defending a playboy who is accused of rape and attempted murder. As the case evolves, new plot twists are revealed and McConaughey begins to fight for his own survival in both his career and his life. The film was a surprise hit at the box office this spring, as it was a consistent performer during its run in theatres.
Arthur – This film is a remake of the Dudley Moore classic about a wealthy man who is threatened to be cutoff from his inheritance if he does not marry a girl that has been selected for him. Unfortunately for Arthur, he has met a new girl that he actually likes, so the age old question of “For Love or Money” comes into play. Russell Brand, Jennifer Garner and Helen Mirren star in the remake. The film was not a hit at the box office and I don’t think audiences are ready for Russell Brand in a leading role yet. This film will be released on DVD shelves on Friday.
Insidious – This film stars Patrick Wilson and the plot is about a family dealing with their house being haunted, except that maybe the house is not what is causing the haunting, but their child. The film is directed by James Wan (who directed Saw) and is co-produced by Oren Peli (who wrote and directed Paranormal Activity). Insidious was a hit at the box office this spring and the film got good reviews from critics, which we all know is a rarity for a horror film.
Miral – This film is from acclaimed director Julian Schnabel (he directed The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and is about the lives of four women who fight for human rights despite the savagery of war that surrounds them. It only got a limited release in theatres, so you’ll probably have to hunt for it on DVD as stores will not be stocking up on this title.
TV on DVD
Damages: The Complete Third Season
Entourage: The Complete Seventh Season
E.R.: Season 15 (The Final Season)
MI-5: Volume 9
Until Next Tuesday!
Two comedies get released this weekend with the goal of overthrowing Transformers: Dark of the Moon from the top of the box office. The two films are Zookeeper which stars Kevin James and will appeal to younger audiences while Horrible Bosses will be going after adult audiences. Unfortunately, I think the fact that two comedies are going up against each other on the same weekend will hurt both films chances of major success at the box office, which gives Transformers: Dark of the Moon an easy victory at the box office this weekend. Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:
Zookeeper stars Kevin James and is about a zookeeper who loses the girl of his dreams when he proposes to her and gets rejected. A few years later, he gets a shot at winning her back, but only if he quits his job as a zookeeper. The animals of the zoo are upset by the news of their favorite zookeeper leaving, so they do everything they can to make sure he remains at their zoo. The animals reveal to the James character that they can all talk, and help him in his quest to win back the girl of his dreams. I will not lie, I think the ad campaign makes the film look terrible, but I am not the target demographic for the film. Young kids are, and I think they should turn out in pretty solid numbers to support the film. I looked at some recent Kevin James films to come up with a prediction and here are the numbers:
2007 – I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – $34.2 million opening weekend
2009 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $31.8 million opening weekend
2010 – Grown Ups – $40.5 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $35.5 million
Paul Blart: Mall Cop is the only one of the three films where Kevin James is anchoring the film solo, so the $31.8 million gross is a more accurate estimate for Zookeeper in my opinion. The film is getting a wide release in 3,482 theatres, but is receiving some extremely negative reviews from critics, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 11% positive as of this writing. Audiences won’t care what critics have to say, as the target audience would be young male adults. I’m predicting that Zookeeper grosses $25 million and finishes in 2nd place.
Horrible Bosses stars Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Charlie Day, Kevin Spacey, Jennifer Aniston and Colin Farrell and is about a bunch of friends who all have one thing in common – they hate their bosses. So they plan to kill all their terrible bosses to exact revenge for all the ways they have been mistreated. The film is hoping to continue the trend of “R” rated films scoring big at the box office this summer (The Hangover II, Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher spring to mind). When I looked at films to help make my prediction, I didn’t use The Hangover II because it was a sequel and had a built in audience. Here is how the other two films I used did on their opening weekend:
2011 – Bridesmaids – $26.2 million opening weekend
2011 – Bad Teacher – $31.6 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $28.9 million
I think Horrible Bosses will suffer a little bit because so many comedies have been released this summer that audiences maybe fatigued of seeing “R” rated comedies. I also think Horrible Bosses does not have a lot of star power (even though it has a lot of stars) as I wouldn’t consider any of the stars in the film box office draws at this point in their respective careers. What the film does have going for it is the fact that it is getting a decent launch, as it will be released in 3,040 theatres. Critics are enthusiastic about the film as well as it currently has a 78% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. I’m predicting that Horrible Bosses will gross $18 million and finish in 3rd place.
Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a strong opening weekend, but as we all know, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, and I’m predicting a substantial drop for Transformers: Dark of the Moon this weekend. It is a sequel, which means the drop will be higher, and the film doesn’t seem to be a film that people are excited about anymore. It seems to me that more people are excited about Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two opening next weekend then seeing Transformers: Dark of the Moon. I’m predicting a drop of 64%, giving Transformers: Dark of the Moon a gross of $35.2 million and a 1st place finish.
Cars 2 suffered the worst second weekend drop in Disney//Pixar history last weekend and I don’t think the news will be any better this weekend as Zookeeper poses some serious competition for the film. I’m predicting that Cars 2 will drop 54%, giving the film a gross of $12.1 million and a 4th place finish.
Larry Crowne had an extremely disappointing debut last weekend, but I’m predicting that it will finish ahead of Bad Teacher for 5th place at the box office this weekend because it is an adult dramedy and films for adults tend to post steady declines, while Bad Teacher has to deal with Horrible Bosses stealing its audience. Larry Crowne is the safer bet and I’m predicting that Larry Crowne will drop 38%, giving the film a gross of $8 million and a 5th place finish.
In limited release the following films are opening: Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest; Chillar Party; Falling of the Cries; The Ledge; Project Nim; Ranchero; Rapt and Sholem Aleichem: Laughing in the Darkness.
Project Nim; Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest; Rapt and Sholem Aleichem: Laughing in the Darkness all have ratings above 75% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $35.2 million
Zookeeper – $25 million
Horrible Bosses – $18 million
Cars 2 – $12.1 million
Larry Crowne – $8 million
Think you can do better than me in making predictions? Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”. Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
Hobo with a Shotgun – This film stars Rutger Hauer as the hobo and the title of the film perfectly encapsulates what this movie is about. A hobo arrives in a place called “Hope Town”, which is actually not a nice place to live in. Some bad people run the town and the hobo gets a shotgun and starts cleaning up the town by taking out the trash. It is a “B” film and proud of it. This is a film for audiences who liked Grindhouse or Machete, which are perfect comparisons because Hobo with a Shotgun was originally a trailer that won a contest to be included in Grindhouse in the fake trailer section of the film (much like Machete). That fake trailer intrigued producers enough to make a feature length film on it. The film was well received by critics and currently has a 70% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
The Warrior’s Way – This film stars Kate Bosworth, Geoffrey Rush, Danny Huston and Korean star Jang Dong Gun and is about a swordsman who betrays his clan and heads to a small western town to try and hide. As we all know in movies, you can never outrun your past, and his past catches up with him in this town and all hell break’s loose. The film bombed when it was released in theatres this past Christmas, but I think it will find an audience on DVD because of the interesting premise of it being considered a samurai western.
TV on DVD
The PJ’s – Season 2
The Cape – The Complete Series
Victorious – Season One, Volume One
Dynasty – The Fifth Season, Volume One
Dynasty – The Fifth Season, Volume Two
According to Jim – The Complete Fourth Season
Boy Meets World – The Complete Sixth Season
Eureka – Season 4.0
Until Next Tuesday!
Transformers: Dark of the Moon ruled the box office as expected this weekend, but was not as dominant as Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. The two other new releases were dead on arrival as both Larry Crowne and Monte Carlo had extremely disappointing debuts. My predictions were not very strong this weekend as I did predict all five films in the top five, placing three of them in order, but I was way off in the estimates of how all five films would perform. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon debuted in 1st place this weekend with a gross of $97.4 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $82 million). Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a per theatre average of $24,271, which was the best per theatre average of any film in release as of this writing. Although, the opening weekend was dominant, it did not have the best opening weekend in the franchise. See below:
Transformers – $70.5 million opening weekend
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $108.9 million opening weekend
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $97.4 million opening weekend
The series is not as popular as it once was and that is not uncommon with the third entry of a franchise. Audience fatigue sets in and the franchise is not as relevant or important to pop culture anymore (and this is not the first time this has happened to the Transformers as they were big in the 80’s only to become non-relevant until the live-action films were released). Audiences know what to expect from the Transformers films and critical reaction has no impact on audiences checking this film out whatsoever. Still, no one should be complaining about the performance of the Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Since its opening day on Wednesday, it has grossed $162.1 million and has almost made back its budget of $195 million, which makes Paramount and DreamWorks extremely happy.
Cars 2 dropped from 1st place to 2nd place with a gross of $25.1 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $34.3 million). Cars 2 had a per theatre average of $6,103 and dropped a whopping 62% in its second weekend. The 62% second weekend drop was the highest second weekend drop in Pixar history, which is not a good sign for the film. The drop does make sense as this is a sequel, so there is more demand up front and the bad reviews did not help bring in new audiences, who might have been interested in the film. The drop is still surprising because the Cars brand is one of the most popular amongst kids, but the magic touch of Pixar does not seem to be working for Cars 2. In 10 days, Cars 2 has grossed $116 million from a budget of $200 million. The good thing about the film is that family films tend to perform steady throughout the summer, so it should be able to make back its budget from its domestic earnings alone. We’ll have to wait and see.
Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is the Cameron Diaz//Jason Segel comedy Bad Teacher with a gross of $14.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $18 million). Bad Teacher had a per theatre average of $4,624 and dropped 55.4% from last weekend. Although the drop was high, this film is a moneymaker for Sony Pictures as after 10 days it has grossed $59.5 million from a budget of $20 million.
Debuting in 4th place is the Tom Hanks//Julia Roberts romantic comedy Larry Crowne with a very disappointing debut of $13 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $22 million). Larry Crowne had a per theatre average of $4,375, which is not good. This goes to show me that the star power of Hanks and Roberts is no longer as strong as it once was and the ad campaign made the film look too generic for audiences (there really was no hook except to see Hanks and Roberts in the same film, which wasn’t much of a hook as they had already appeared together in Charlie Wilson’s War). Larry Crowne did not cost that much to make (the budget is reportedly $30 million) and I’m sure adult audiences will support it in the coming weeks, but this has to be considered a major disappointment for both Hanks and Roberts.
Monte Carlo debuted in 5th place with a terrible gross of $7.6 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $12 million). Monte Carlo had a per theatre average of $3,073. This goes to show me that Selena Gomez does not have enough star power with younger audiences to anchor a film and she still needs the Disney brand to support her to some degree. The film cost $20 million to make for 20th Century Fox, so they will not make or lose a lot of money from Monte Carlo but I’m sure they hoped the film could gross at least $10 million this weekend.
The films in limited release have yet to release their weekend grosses.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $82 million
Cars 2 – $34.3 million
Larry Crowne – $22 million
Bad Teacher – $18 million
Monte Carlo – $12 million
And here are the actual numbers:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $97.4 million
Cars 2 – $25.1 million
Bad Teacher – $14.1 million
Larry Crowne – $13 million
Monte Carlo – $7.6 million
Next weekend, two comedies get released with the hopes of dethroning Transformers: Dark of the Moon from the top of the box office. The first film is Zookeeper starring Kevin James and the second film is Horrible Bosses starring Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Colin Farrell, Jennifer Aniston, Jamie Foxx and Kevin Spacey. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!