Category Archives: Scotty G

Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 15th, 2011

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two hits movie theatres this weekend and will look to set a franchise best in terms of opening weekend gross. The other new release of the weekend will be going after younger audiences as Walt Disney Pictures releases the animated adventure Winnie the Pooh. All the other films in the top five are just hoping that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two does not cut into their box office gross too much. Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two opens this weekend and the anticipation to see the finale of the popular franchise is at an all-time high. The final installment follows Harry, Ron and Hermione battling the Death Eaters one last time with Harry and Voldemort having their long awaited showdown in a battle of good vs. evil. Fans of the books cannot wait to see the pages come to life, fans of the movies are just plain excited and Warner Bros. is ecstatic by the prospect of making a ton of money on this film. Just to take a look back at the franchise, here is how all the films in the series have done on their opening weekend:

Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $90.2 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $88.3 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $93.6 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $102.6 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $77.1 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $77.8 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One – $125 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $93.5 million

I think it is safe to say that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two should shatter the record for highest opening weekend in the franchise. It also has the benefit of being shown in 3-D which will drive up ticket prices. The only other time I can think of a comparable film, where fans were excited to see the final installment in a franchise, is Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith because everyone wanted to see that film to witness Anakin Skywalker become Darth Vader. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith grossed $108.4 million on its opening weekend back in 2005 and that was by far and away the highest grossing opening weekend in the franchise, surpassing the $64.8 million of Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace. As mentioned earlier, people want to see the final battle between Harry and Voldemort, so it makes sense that this film will have a massive opening weekend. What is also amazing is that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two is receiving the best reviews of the entire franchise as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 97% positive as of this writing. The glowing reviews are definitely going to help the film out at the box office in the long run. I’m going out on a limb on my prediction, but here it is. Opening in 4,375 theatres (which is the third highest theatre release count of all time), I’m predicting that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two will gross $154 million this weekend, giving it a first place finish at the box office and the 2nd highest opening weekend of all time.

Winnie the Pooh is released as counter-programming by Walt Disney Pictures this weekend for audiences that are a little too young to see wizards do battle. The film is based on three short stories about Winnie the Pooh and mainly follows Pooh, Tigger, Kanga, Little Roo, Rabbit, Piglet and Owl on a quest to save Christopher Robin. When making my prediction for Winnie the Pooh, I took a look at the previous Winnie the Pooh related films and how they did on their opening weekend. They are below:

2000 – The Tigger Movie – $9.4 million opening weekend
2003 – Piglet’s Big Movie – $6 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $7.7 million

I don’t know how successful Winnie the Pooh will be this weekend because Disney seems to be dumping this film onto audiences as it’s getting a low theatre count of 2,405 theatres. Usually films that are not good get treated like this, but Winnie the Pooh is getting love from the critics as it has an 88% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. I’m going to play it safe and stick with the average listed above. I’m predicting that Winnie the Pooh will gross $7.5 million and finish in 6th place.

Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon held up well in its second week, but I think the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two will cause Transformers: Dark of the Moon to have a bigger drop off this weekend, than it did last weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 55% this weekend, giving Transformers: Dark of the Moon a gross of $21.2 million and a 2nd place finish.

Horrible Bosses had an excellent debut last weekend, surprising a lot of people with its strong performance. I think it has a great chance to have a strong hold this weekend, as this will be the counter-programming film that adults will want to see instead of the film about wizards. I’m predicting that Horrible Bosses drops 41%, giving the film a gross of $19.5 million and a 3rd place finish.

Zookeeper had a disappointing debut last weekend, even though it did gross $20 million. I think the premise of the film turned a lot of people off, as the trailers for the film did look bad. I thought Kevin James had built up enough star power to get the film a higher gross, but I was wrong. I think the word-of-mouth and terrible reviews will definitely hurt Zookeeper this weekend, so I’m predicting a drop of 53%, which will give the film a gross of $9.4 million and a 4th place finish.

Cars 2 will also be hurt by the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two this weekend because audiences will prefer to see the newest big blockbuster instead of one that will be in its fourth weekend of release. It will also be losing some 3-D screens to the wizard film, and that takes away from its box office gross. I’m predicting that Cars 2 will drop 45%, giving the film a gross of $8.4 million and a 5th place finish.

In limited release the following films are opening: Daylight; Life, Above All; Salvation Boulevard; Snow Flower and the Secret Fan and Tabloid.

Daylight, Life, Above All and Tabloid all have ratings above 80% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two – $154 million
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $21.2 million
Horrible Bosses – $19.5 million
Zookeeper – $9.4 million
Cars 2 – $8.4 million

Think you can do better than me in making predictions? Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”. Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

DVD Tuesday with Scotty G

Rango – This film is an animated adventure that features the voice talent of Johnny Depp and is directed by Gore Verbinski, who is probably best known for directing the first three installments of the “Pirates of the Caribbean” trilogy. Rango is about a chameleon that ends up in an old west town called “Dirt”, where he is encouraged by the locals to stand up to the outlaws of the town, including the evil Rattlesnake Jake. The film was a hit at the box office this spring and with the star power of Depp, I’m sure it will be a hit on DVD as well. This film will be released on DVD shelves on Friday.

The Lincoln Lawyer – This film stars Matthew McConaughey and is about a criminal lawyer who works out of his Lincoln sedan. He defends common criminals and most of his cases are just middle of the road, until he lands the case of defending a playboy who is accused of rape and attempted murder. As the case evolves, new plot twists are revealed and McConaughey begins to fight for his own survival in both his career and his life. The film was a surprise hit at the box office this spring, as it was a consistent performer during its run in theatres.

Arthur – This film is a remake of the Dudley Moore classic about a wealthy man who is threatened to be cutoff from his inheritance if he does not marry a girl that has been selected for him. Unfortunately for Arthur, he has met a new girl that he actually likes, so the age old question of “For Love or Money” comes into play. Russell Brand, Jennifer Garner and Helen Mirren star in the remake. The film was not a hit at the box office and I don’t think audiences are ready for Russell Brand in a leading role yet. This film will be released on DVD shelves on Friday.

Insidious – This film stars Patrick Wilson and the plot is about a family dealing with their house being haunted, except that maybe the house is not what is causing the haunting, but their child. The film is directed by James Wan (who directed Saw) and is co-produced by Oren Peli (who wrote and directed Paranormal Activity). Insidious was a hit at the box office this spring and the film got good reviews from critics, which we all know is a rarity for a horror film.

Miral – This film is from acclaimed director Julian Schnabel (he directed The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and is about the lives of four women who fight for human rights despite the savagery of war that surrounds them. It only got a limited release in theatres, so you’ll probably have to hunt for it on DVD as stores will not be stocking up on this title.

TV on DVD

Damages: The Complete Third Season
Entourage: The Complete Seventh Season
E.R.: Season 15 (The Final Season)
MI-5: Volume 9

Until Next Tuesday!

Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report


Transformers: Dark of the Moon ruled the box office for the second weekend in a row, which was expected, but what ended up being the real story was the film that finished in 2nd place.  You’ll have to read more below to find out what film it was.  In fact, the two major new releases of the weekend both had debuts over $20 million, which was impressive. My predictions were brutal this weekend, as I picked four of the films in the top five, and only had two of them in the correct finish.  In terms of estimates, I really wasn’t that close on any of them.  Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon finished in 1st place for the second weekend in a row with a gross of $47 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $35.2 million).  Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a per theatre average of $11,503, which was the highest per theatre average of any of the films in the top ten, and was down 51.9% from last weekend’s debut.  The hold was quite impressive, and was much closer to the first film’s second weekend drop than the second film’s second weekend drop.  See below:
Transformers – 47.5% second weekend drop
Transformers:  Revenge of the Fallen – 61.2% second weekend drop
Transformers:  Dark of the Moon – 51.9% second weekend drop
The hold is shocking to me because sequels have much more upfront demand, so the fact that it was around 50% means that audiences like the latest entry in the franchise.  It still has a ways to go to surpass Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen as the highest grossing entry in the franchise (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen grossed $402.1 million during its run).  Still, it’s an excellent second weekend for Transformers:  Dark of the Moon and the film is definitely a money maker for DreamWorks//Paramount as it has grossed $261 million from a budget of $195 million.
Horrible Bosses debuted in 2nd place with a gross of $28.1 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $18 million) with an excellent per theatre average of $9,247.  This is a surprising finish in a good way, as I doubt any “box office expert” thought this film would gross more than $25 million on its opening weekend when they were looking at the release schedule of films at the start of the summer.  Horrible Bosses benefitted from strong reviews, a great marketing campaign and I’m sure the word-of-mouth on the film will definitely help it in the weeks ahead.  The film actually opened in the middle of the other two films that I used to make my prediction for Horrible Bosses.  See below:
2011 – Bridesmaids – $26.2 million opening weekend
2011 – Horrible Bosses – $28.1 million opening weekend
2011 – Bad Teacher – $31.6 million opening weekend
What’s funny is that the average gross of Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher was $28.9 million, so I should listen to the numbers and not my gut.  Horrible Bosses has a budget of $35 million, so this film will be making money for Warner Bros.//New Line in the coming weeks and should be able to gross over $100 million at the end of its run, as Bridesmaids has already accomplished that feat and Bad Teacher is getting closer to hitting that target.
Zookeeper debuted in 3rd place with a gross of $21 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $25 million).  Zookeeper had a per theatre average of $6,031.  The opening weekend has to be considered a little disappointing for Kevin James as the opening weekend for Zookeeper is quite a bit below his last headlining film Paul Blart: Mall Cop.  In fact, of the three films I used to make my prediction, Zookeeper finished significantly lower than those films in terms of opening weekend gross:
2007 – I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – $34.2 million opening weekend
2009 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $31.8 million opening weekend
2010 – Grown Ups – $40.5 million opening weekend
2011 – Zookeeper – $21 million opening weekend
The poor reviews will not help out Zookeeper in the coming weeks and the family audience won’t be there next weekend as they will all be going to see either Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two or Winnie the Pooh.  Zookeeper has a budget of $80 million (which is astounding, as it doesn’t look like a film that should cost $80 million, but the special effects on the animals drove up the cost, I’m sure) and I don’t think it will be a film that will be making its money back for Sony Pictures.
Cars 2 dropped from 2nd place to 4th place with a gross of $15.2 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $12.1 million). Cars 2 had a per theatre average of $3,812 and dropped 42.1% from last weekend’s gross.  The film is just not getting the love from audiences that most Disney//Pixar films usually do, and there is no way the Cars 2 out grosses the original Cars (which grossed $244 million).  After three weeks of release,  has grossed $148.8 million against a budget of $200 million
Dropping from 3rd place to 5th place is the Cameron Diaz//Jason Segel comedy Bad Teacher with a gross of $9 million (I did not make a prediction for this film).  Bad Teacher had a per theatre average of $3,028 and dropped 38% from last weekend, which was the best percentage hold of any film in the top ten.  What’s impressive about Bad Teacher is how strong the hold was this weekend considering two new comedies came out, with one of them – Horrible Bosses – going directly after its audience.  The “R” rated comedy seems to be the story of the summer.  After three weeks of release, Bad Teacher has grossed $78.7 million from a budget of only $20 million, so Sony Pictures is very happy with the performance of this film.
Larry Crowne dropped from 4th place to 6th place with a gross of $6.2 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $8 million). Larry Crowne had a per theatre average of $2,105 and dropped 52.2% in its second weekend.  The drop is surprisingly high because this is a film geared towards older adults, which usually means strong holds every weekend, and long runs for the films targeting that audience.  For whatever reason, the Tom Hanks//Julia Roberts film about a man going back to school after losing his job is just not resonating with audiences, and definitely has to be considered one of the disappointments of the summer.  After 10 days of release, Larry Crowne has grossed $26.5 million against a budget of $30 million, so it is definitely not the hit that Universal was hoping it would be.
Two films in limited release did very well this weekend:
Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest had a gross of $120,000 from 4 theatres, giving the film a per theatre average of $30,000, which was the highest per theatre average of any film in release.
Sholem Aleichem: Laughing in the Darkness had a gross of $18,400 from one theatre, giving it the same per theatre average.  It had the second highest per theatre average of any film in release this weekend.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
  1. Transformers:  Dark of the Moon – $35.2 million
  2. Zookeeper – $25 million
  3. Horrible Bosses – $18 million
  4. Cars 2 – $12.1 million
  5. Larry Crowne – $8 million
 And here are the actual numbers:

  1. Transformers:  Dark of the Moon – $47 million
  2. Horrible Bosses – $28.1 million
  3. Zookeeper – $21 million
  4. Cars 2 – $15.2 million
  5. Bad Teacher – $9 million
Next weekend, two new films get released and one of them will most certainly be the new box office champion.  The two films are the animated-adventure Winnie the Pooh and the highly anticipated adventure finale Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two.  Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 8th, 2011

Two comedies get released this weekend with the goal of overthrowing Transformers: Dark of the Moon from the top of the box office. The two films are Zookeeper which stars Kevin James and will appeal to younger audiences while Horrible Bosses will be going after adult audiences. Unfortunately, I think the fact that two comedies are going up against each other on the same weekend will hurt both films chances of major success at the box office, which gives Transformers: Dark of the Moon an easy victory at the box office this weekend. Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:

Zookeeper stars Kevin James and is about a zookeeper who loses the girl of his dreams when he proposes to her and gets rejected. A few years later, he gets a shot at winning her back, but only if he quits his job as a zookeeper. The animals of the zoo are upset by the news of their favorite zookeeper leaving, so they do everything they can to make sure he remains at their zoo. The animals reveal to the James character that they can all talk, and help him in his quest to win back the girl of his dreams. I will not lie, I think the ad campaign makes the film look terrible, but I am not the target demographic for the film. Young kids are, and I think they should turn out in pretty solid numbers to support the film. I looked at some recent Kevin James films to come up with a prediction and here are the numbers:


2007 – I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – $34.2 million opening weekend
2009 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $31.8 million opening weekend
2010 – Grown Ups – $40.5 million opening weekend


Average Opening Weekend – $35.5 million

Paul Blart: Mall Cop is the only one of the three films where Kevin James is anchoring the film solo, so the $31.8 million gross is a more accurate estimate for Zookeeper in my opinion. The film is getting a wide release in 3,482 theatres, but is receiving some extremely negative reviews from critics, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 11% positive as of this writing. Audiences won’t care what critics have to say, as the target audience would be young male adults. I’m predicting that Zookeeper grosses $25 million and finishes in 2nd place.

Horrible Bosses stars Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Charlie Day, Kevin Spacey, Jennifer Aniston and Colin Farrell and is about a bunch of friends who all have one thing in common – they hate their bosses. So they plan to kill all their terrible bosses to exact revenge for all the ways they have been mistreated. The film is hoping to continue the trend of “R” rated films scoring big at the box office this summer (The Hangover II, Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher spring to mind). When I looked at films to help make my prediction, I didn’t use The Hangover II because it was a sequel and had a built in audience. Here is how the other two films I used did on their opening weekend:


2011 – Bridesmaids – $26.2 million opening weekend
2011 – Bad Teacher – $31.6 million opening weekend


Average Opening Weekend – $28.9 million

I think Horrible Bosses will suffer a little bit because so many comedies have been released this summer that audiences maybe fatigued of seeing “R” rated comedies. I also think Horrible Bosses does not have a lot of star power (even though it has a lot of stars) as I wouldn’t consider any of the stars in the film box office draws at this point in their respective careers. What the film does have going for it is the fact that it is getting a decent launch, as it will be released in 3,040 theatres. Critics are enthusiastic about the film as well as it currently has a 78% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. I’m predicting that Horrible Bosses will gross $18 million and finish in 3rd place.


Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a strong opening weekend, but as we all know, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, and I’m predicting a substantial drop for Transformers: Dark of the Moon this weekend. It is a sequel, which means the drop will be higher, and the film doesn’t seem to be a film that people are excited about anymore. It seems to me that more people are excited about Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two opening next weekend then seeing Transformers: Dark of the Moon. I’m predicting a drop of 64%, giving Transformers: Dark of the Moon a gross of $35.2 million and a 1st place finish.


Cars 2 suffered the worst second weekend drop in Disney//Pixar history last weekend and I don’t think the news will be any better this weekend as Zookeeper poses some serious competition for the film. I’m predicting that Cars 2 will drop 54%, giving the film a gross of $12.1 million and a 4th place finish.


Larry Crowne had an extremely disappointing debut last weekend, but I’m predicting that it will finish ahead of Bad Teacher for 5th place at the box office this weekend because it is an adult dramedy and films for adults tend to post steady declines, while Bad Teacher has to deal with Horrible Bosses stealing its audience. Larry Crowne is the safer bet and I’m predicting that Larry Crowne will drop 38%, giving the film a gross of $8 million and a 5th place finish.


In limited release the following films are opening: Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest; Chillar Party; Falling of the Cries; The Ledge; Project Nim; Ranchero; Rapt and Sholem Aleichem: Laughing in the Darkness.


Project Nim; Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest; Rapt and Sholem Aleichem: Laughing in the Darkness all have ratings above 75% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


So to recap, here are my predictions:


Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $35.2 million
Zookeeper – $25 million
Horrible Bosses – $18 million
Cars 2 – $12.1 million
Larry Crowne – $8 million


Think you can do better than me in making predictions? Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”. Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

DVD Tuesday with Scotty G

Hobo with a Shotgun – This film stars Rutger Hauer as the hobo and the title of the film perfectly encapsulates what this movie is about. A hobo arrives in a place called “Hope Town”, which is actually not a nice place to live in. Some bad people run the town and the hobo gets a shotgun and starts cleaning up the town by taking out the trash. It is a “B” film and proud of it. This is a film for audiences who liked Grindhouse or Machete, which are perfect comparisons because Hobo with a Shotgun was originally a trailer that won a contest to be included in Grindhouse in the fake trailer section of the film (much like Machete). That fake trailer intrigued producers enough to make a feature length film on it. The film was well received by critics and currently has a 70% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

The Warrior’s Way – This film stars Kate Bosworth, Geoffrey Rush, Danny Huston and Korean star Jang Dong Gun and is about a swordsman who betrays his clan and heads to a small western town to try and hide. As we all know in movies, you can never outrun your past, and his past catches up with him in this town and all hell break’s loose. The film bombed when it was released in theatres this past Christmas, but I think it will find an audience on DVD because of the interesting premise of it being considered a samurai western.

TV on DVD

The PJ’s – Season 2
The Cape – The Complete Series
Victorious – Season One, Volume One
Dynasty – The Fifth Season, Volume One
Dynasty – The Fifth Season, Volume Two
According to Jim – The Complete Fourth Season
Boy Meets World – The Complete Sixth Season
Eureka – Season 4.0

Until Next Tuesday!

Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

Transformers: Dark of the Moon ruled the box office as expected this weekend, but was not as dominant as Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. The two other new releases were dead on arrival as both Larry Crowne and Monte Carlo had extremely disappointing debuts. My predictions were not very strong this weekend as I did predict all five films in the top five, placing three of them in order, but I was way off in the estimates of how all five films would perform. Here’s how the weekend broke down:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon debuted in 1st place this weekend with a gross of $97.4 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $82 million). Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a per theatre average of $24,271, which was the best per theatre average of any film in release as of this writing. Although, the opening weekend was dominant, it did not have the best opening weekend in the franchise. See below:

Transformers – $70.5 million opening weekend
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $108.9 million opening weekend
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $97.4 million opening weekend

The series is not as popular as it once was and that is not uncommon with the third entry of a franchise. Audience fatigue sets in and the franchise is not as relevant or important to pop culture anymore (and this is not the first time this has happened to the Transformers as they were big in the 80’s only to become non-relevant until the live-action films were released). Audiences know what to expect from the Transformers films and critical reaction has no impact on audiences checking this film out whatsoever. Still, no one should be complaining about the performance of the Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Since its opening day on Wednesday, it has grossed $162.1 million and has almost made back its budget of $195 million, which makes Paramount and DreamWorks extremely happy.

Cars 2 dropped from 1st place to 2nd place with a gross of $25.1 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $34.3 million). Cars 2 had a per theatre average of $6,103 and dropped a whopping 62% in its second weekend. The 62% second weekend drop was the highest second weekend drop in Pixar history, which is not a good sign for the film. The drop does make sense as this is a sequel, so there is more demand up front and the bad reviews did not help bring in new audiences, who might have been interested in the film. The drop is still surprising because the Cars brand is one of the most popular amongst kids, but the magic touch of Pixar does not seem to be working for Cars 2. In 10 days, Cars 2 has grossed $116 million from a budget of $200 million. The good thing about the film is that family films tend to perform steady throughout the summer, so it should be able to make back its budget from its domestic earnings alone. We’ll have to wait and see.

Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is the Cameron Diaz//Jason Segel comedy Bad Teacher with a gross of $14.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $18 million). Bad Teacher had a per theatre average of $4,624 and dropped 55.4% from last weekend. Although the drop was high, this film is a moneymaker for Sony Pictures as after 10 days it has grossed $59.5 million from a budget of $20 million.

Debuting in 4th place is the Tom Hanks//Julia Roberts romantic comedy Larry Crowne with a very disappointing debut of $13 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $22 million). Larry Crowne had a per theatre average of $4,375, which is not good. This goes to show me that the star power of Hanks and Roberts is no longer as strong as it once was and the ad campaign made the film look too generic for audiences (there really was no hook except to see Hanks and Roberts in the same film, which wasn’t much of a hook as they had already appeared together in Charlie Wilson’s War). Larry Crowne did not cost that much to make (the budget is reportedly $30 million) and I’m sure adult audiences will support it in the coming weeks, but this has to be considered a major disappointment for both Hanks and Roberts.

Monte Carlo debuted in 5th place with a terrible gross of $7.6 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $12 million). Monte Carlo had a per theatre average of $3,073. This goes to show me that Selena Gomez does not have enough star power with younger audiences to anchor a film and she still needs the Disney brand to support her to some degree. The film cost $20 million to make for 20th Century Fox, so they will not make or lose a lot of money from Monte Carlo but I’m sure they hoped the film could gross at least $10 million this weekend.

The films in limited release have yet to release their weekend grosses.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $82 million
Cars 2 – $34.3 million
Larry Crowne – $22 million
Bad Teacher – $18 million
Monte Carlo – $12 million

And here are the actual numbers:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $97.4 million
Cars 2 – $25.1 million
Bad Teacher – $14.1 million
Larry Crowne – $13 million
Monte Carlo – $7.6 million

Next weekend, two comedies get released with the hopes of dethroning Transformers: Dark of the Moon from the top of the box office. The first film is Zookeeper starring Kevin James and the second film is Horrible Bosses starring Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Colin Farrell, Jennifer Aniston, Jamie Foxx and Kevin Spacey. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 1st, 2011

Three new films get released this weekend:  the action-adventure Transformers: Dark of the Moon, the romantic-comedy Larry Crowne, starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts and the teenage mistaken identity comedy Monte Carlo, starring Selena Gomez.  We all know that Transformers: Dark of the Moon will be the box office champion this weekend, but how much will it gross and how will the other new releases perform?  Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon is the big budget blockbuster that looks to continue the trend the previous two installments have established and that is to absolutely dominate the box office around the Canada Day weekend.  The plot involves the humans hiding from the Autobots the real reason there was a space race back in the day and the Autobots are none too pleased about the information not being shared.  Disaster faces the Earth when evil robots from the moon are awakened, so the Autobots and humans have to team up once again to save the world.  The Transformers franchise is a big performer and here is how the films in the series have done on their opening weekend:
Transformers – $70.5 million opening weekend
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $108.9 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $89.7 million
That is an impressive number, but what is not impressive is the fact that Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened this past Wednesday to disappointing results (at least compared to the last film).  See below:
Transformers – $27.8 million opening day gross
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $62 million opening day gross
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $37.7 million opening day gross
The reason for the high drop off on the opening day gross between the second and third film is that audiences realized that the second film was not very good and were not as excited to see another installment.  Sure, the second film did well at the box office, but that doesn’t mean anything in terms of the quality of the film.  Even actor Shia LaBeouf has acknowledged the second film was crap and promised the third film will be better.  Critics don’t think the series has improved because Transformers: Dark of the Moon has a 37% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.  The film is getting an ultra-wide launch of 4,013 theatres, so that will help its numbers, but I don’t think it will have an opening weekend gross as high as Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.  I’m predicting that Transformers: Dark of the Moon will gross $82 million and finish in 1st place.

Larry Crowne stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (and is also directed by Tom Hanks) and is about a man (played by Hanks) who loses his job and has to start over, so he goes back to school.  While there, he begins to fall for his teacher (played by Roberts).  The plot does not stand out and the film is hoping that the star power of Hanks and Roberts will draw people into theatres, but Hanks and Roberts are not the big stars they were in the 1990’s anymore.  Here are some films from the past 10 years that they have starred in and how the films did on their opening weekends: 
2004 – The Terminal – $19 million opening weekend
2007 – Charlie Wilson’s War – $9.6 million opening weekend
2009 – Duplicity – $13.9 million opening weekend
2010 – Eat Pray Love – $23.1 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $16.4 million
Those opening weekend number surprised me, when I saw them, but the numbers don’t lie.  The critical reaction to Larry Crowne has also been disappointing, as Rotten Tomatoes has a 33% positive as of this writing.  What the film does have going for it is that it appeals to an older audience, which is a demographic that is not well represented in theatres right now.  Opening in 2,972 theatres, I’m predicting that Larry Crowne will open with a gross of $22 million and finish in 3rd place.

Monte Carlo is the final new release of the weekend and it stars Selena Gomez as a girl on a European trip who ends up resembling a famous European celebrity so her and her friends get caught up living the celebrity lifestyle (until the moment when everyone realizes what’s going on and the girl is not who she says she is).  The film sounds similar to the plot of The Lizzie McGuire Movie which opened with $17.3 million back in 2003.  That film had the benefit of a popular TV show and the Disney brand, and while Selena Gomez also has a popular show that is done by Disney, she is doing a film that is not based on her character from Wizards of Waverly Placeso the tie-in audience is not there.  Monte Carlo is being released by 20th Century Fox and not Disney, so that hurts the potential of the box office gross as Disney is better at marketing these types of films than Fox in my opinion.  Critics are giving the best reviews of the new releases to Monte Carlo with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 42% positive (which is still not very good) as of this writing, but teenage girls should come out and support the film, despite what the critics have to say.  I believe that Monte Carlo should gross less than the $17.3 million that The Lizzie McGuire Movie did.  Debuting in 2,472 theatres, I’m predicting that Monte Carlo will gross $12 million and finish in 5th place.
Cars 2 had a good, but not great debut last weekend (considering it is a sequel to one of the most marketable brands that Disney//Pixar has).  The original film dropped 43.9% on its second weekend, and sequels tend to have more people come out up front and suffer larger drops on the second weekend, so in theory Cars 2 should have a drop off on its second weekend that is higher than 43.9%.  I’m predicting that Cars 2 will drop 48%, giving the film a gross of $34.3 million and a 2nd place finish.
Bad Teacher had an excellent debut last weekend and with no new adult comedies being released this weekend (I don’t think Larry Crowne and Bad Teacher are going after the same audience, as I think Larry Crowne skews older), I think it should be able to post a strong hold.  I’m predicting that Bad Teacher will drop 43%, giving the film a gross of $18 million and a 4th place finish.
In limited release the following films are opening:  Delhi Belly, The Perfect Host and Terri. 
Delhi Belly and Terri both have ratings above 70% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
  1. Transformers:  Dark of the Moon – $82 million
  2. Cars 2 – $34.3 million
  3. Larry Crowne – $22 million
  4. Bad Teacher – $18 million
  5. Monte Carlo – $12 million
Think you can do better than me in making predictions?  Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”.  Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did! 

DVD Tuesday with Scotty G

The Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy: Extended Editions – The Extended Editions arrive on Blu-Ray with improved sound and picture that diehards of the franchise will want to check out. The story of the trilogy follows Frodo and the Fellowship on a quest to destroy a ring – one ring that rules them all. It’s definitely the highest profile title of the week and I highly recommend checking out the Extended Editions on Blu-Ray. I should note that the trilogy is only sold as a trilogy, not individually.

Sucker Punch – Zach Snyder directs the sci-fi adventure that stars Emily Browning, Jena Malone, Abbie Cornish, Carla Gugino, Jon Hamm and Vanessa Hudgens. The film is about a girl who is locked away in an asylum. Her only way to stay sane is to imagine an alternate world which will help her and some of her fellow inmates go free. The film was a box office disappointment, but it does have some very entertaining visuals and fantasy sequences (specifically the opening of the film), which are worth checking out. By no means is Sucker Punch a perfect film, but fans of Zach Snyder will want to see it.

Season of the Witch – Nicolas Cage and Ron Perlman star in this action-horror film that follows a warrior who has to escort a woman accused of being a witch to a monastery. It is easy to badmouth Nicolas Cage films, but films like Season of the Witch are why he is slumping at the box office as of late. It received some of the worst reviews of 2011, and is an early contender for worst film of the year.

Barney’s Version – Paul Giamatti and Dustin Hoffman star in this film based on the book by Mordecai Richler that follows the life of Barney Panofsky through the best of times, and more often than not, the worst of times. Giamatti won a Golden Globe for his performance and he is the reason to see this film.

Beastly – Vanessa Hudgens and Alex Pettyfer star in this modern day version of the classic Beauty and the Beast tale. It was a moderately successful film at the box office and is definitely a film that teenage girls will want to watch.

TV on DVD

Law and Order: Criminal Intent – The Sixth Year

Until Next Tuesday!

Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

Cars 2 dominated the box office this weekend, continuing Disney//Pixar’s run of supremacy at movie theatres, while Bad Teacher had an excellent debut thanks to a very funny marketing campaign. Green Lantern had a disastrous second weekend and you could say the same about my predictions. I predicted all five films that were in the top five, placing three of them in the correct finish, but I was way off on the amounts of a few of my predictions. Here’s how the weekend broke down:

Cars 2 debuted in 1st place with a gross of $68 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $90 million). Cars 2 had a per theatre average of $16,525, which is the 2nd highest per theatre average of any film in release this weekend as of this writing. Although Cars 2 had an opening weekend that was better than the original (which for sequels, should always be expected), the total gross was not that impressive to me. See how Cars 2 fared compared to the other Disney//Pixar films that opened in wide release.

1995 – Toy Story – $29.1 million opening weekend
2001 – Monsters Inc. – $62.1 million opening weekend
2003 – Finding Nemo – $70.2 million opening weekend
2004 – The Incredibles – $70.4 million opening weekend
2006 – Cars – $60.1 million opening weekend
2007 – Ratatouille – $47 million opening weekend
2008 – Wall-E – $63 million opening weekend
2009 – Up – $68.1 million opening weekend
2010 – Toy Story 3 – $110.3 million opening weekend
2011 – Cars 2 – $68 million opening weekend

Cars 2 had the benefit of 3-D and IMAX, which the original Cars did not have (let along Finding Nemo and The Incredibles which had higher opening weekend grosses than Cars 2), and add in the fact that the Cars brand is arguably one of the more popular in the Disney//Pixar catalogue, I thought that Cars 2 should have done a lot better. Some are saying the critical reaction to Cars 2 (which is easily considered the worst reviewed film in Disney//Pixar history) played an impact on the opening weekend. Still, it was the 4th best June opening of all time. See below:

1) Toy Story 3 – $110.3 million opening weekend
2) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $108.9 million opening weekend
3) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $93.6 million opening weekend
4) Cars 2 – $68 million opening weekend

The budget for the film is unavailable as of this writing, but Pixar films can gross over $200 million with ease and considering the original Cars grossed $244 million, I’m sure Disney//Pixar is hoping that Cars 2 will gross more than that.

Debuting in 2nd place is the Cameron Diaz//Jason Segel comedy Bad Teacher with a gross of $31 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $21 million). Bad Teacher had a per theatre average of $10,167, which is outstanding considering that the film was never really mentioned in summer movie season previews as even having a chance to gross $30 million on its opening weekend. Bad Teacher had a bigger opening weekend than any film I used to help make my prediction for the film. The critical reaction on the film is mixed at best, but we’ll see if word-of-mouth will help give Bad Teacher a strong hold next weekend. Still, this is a great debut for Columbia Pictures.

Dropping from 1st place to 3rd place is the comic book adventure Green Lantern with a gross of $18.3 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $23.9 million). The film had a per theatre average of $4,809 and was down a whopping 65.5% from last weekend’s gross. There are more negatives than positives going for Green Lantern right now. First off – the fact that a major film like Green Lantern has a per theatre average below $5,000 in only its second weekend of release is a terrible sign for the film. Second – the fact that the percentage drop off was not only the highest of any film in the top ten, but above 65% also goes to show that audiences are not liking what they are seeing with the film. Domestically this film will not be making back its budget, so in that regard, it has to be considered a flop for Warner Bros. After ten days of release, Green Lantern has grossed $89.3 million against a budget of $200 million.

Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is the sci-fi adventure Super 8 with a gross of $12.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $13.9 million). Super 8 had a per theatre average of $3,534 and dropped 43.6% from last weekend’s gross. The hold continues to be strong for the film and it once again shows that Super 8 has legs at the box office. After three weeks, Super 8 has grossed $95.1 million from a budget of $50 million, so it is a profitable film for Paramount.

Dropping from 3rd place to 5th place is the family comedy Mr. Popper’s Penguins with a gross of $10.3 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $9.8 million). Mr. Popper’s Penguins had a per theatre average of $3,082 and dropped 44.2% from its opening weekend gross. The per theatre average is not a good sign for the film, but the fact that it was able to have a percentage drop that was lower than 50% considering the competition of Cars 2 is some consolation to 20th Century Fox (although not much). After ten days, Mr. Popper’s Penguins has grossed $39.4 million against a budget of $55 million.

In limited release:

Two films opened strong in limited release this weekend.

A Better Life grossed $60,000 from 4 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $15,000 and Passione grossed $17,300 from one theatre, giving Passione the best per theatre average of any film in release as of this writing.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

Cars 2 – $90 million
Green Lantern – $23.9 million
Bad Teacher – $21 million
Super 8 – $13.9 million
Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $9.8 million

And here are the actual numbers:

Cars 2 – $68 million
Bad Teacher – $31 million
Green Lantern – $18.4 million
Super 8 – $12.1 million
Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $10.3 million

Next weekend, the new films debuting in theatres are: the sci-fi action adventure Transformer: Dark of the Moon starring Shia LaBeouf, Josh Duhamel and John Turturro, the Tom Hanks//Julia Roberts romantic-comedy Larry Crowne and the Selena Gomez teenage mistaken identity comedy Monte Cristo. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

Scott G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 24th

Two films get released this weekend with the goal of dethroning Green Lantern from the top of the box office. The two films are the animated-adventure Cars 2 and the Cameron Diaz comedy Bad Teacher. I can tell you right now that Cars 2 will top the box office, but it will be interesting to see whether or not Bad Teacher can finish in 2nd place. Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:

Cars 2 opens this weekend and it is going to be the big film of the weekend. The Cars franchise is one of the most popular in the Disney//Pixar canon of films, even though the original is not considered to be one of Pixar’s best films (I don’t agree with the critics on that point). This time Lightning McQueen and Mater travel around the world to take part in the World Grand Prix while getting caught up in an espionage operation. I’ll admit that the plot is a complete 180 degree turn from the original, as the original was about a small town that got left behind over the years. It was a nice, simple film with great voice work from Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy and Paul Newman, and there was potential to continue the franchise. Unfortunately for fans of the original and Pixar, Cars 2 is getting the worst reviews of any Pixar film ever released as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 40% positive as of this writing. Even though the reviews are not that strong, this is a Disney//Pixar film and they open very well. See below:

1995 – Toy Story – $29.1 million opening weekend
2001 – Monsters Inc. – $62.1 million opening weekend
2003 – Finding Nemo – $70.2 million opening weekend
2004 – The Incredibles – $70.4 million opening weekend
2006 – Cars – $60.1 million opening weekend
2007 – Ratatouille – $47 million opening weekend
2008 – Wall-E – $63 million opening weekend
2009 – Up – $68.1 million opening weekend
2010 – Toy Story 3 – $110.3 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $64.4 million

A few Pixar films (Toy Story 2 and A Bug’s Life) are not in the list above as they started out in limited release. Cars 2 is getting an ultra-wide launch as it is being released in 4,115 theatres and as I said above, the brand of Cars is very popular so it will overcome the negativity of critics and dominate the box office this weekend. I’m predicting that Cars 2 will gross $90 million and finish in 1st place.

Bad Teacher stars Cameron Diaz, Justin Timberlake and Jason Segel and is about a terrible, foul-mouthed teacher who only dreams of marrying a rich man so she can quit her job teaching students that she loathes. When a new teacher arrives, she does everything to win his affections in the hopes that he will marry her, but to get his attention, she will have to be something that she has never been before, a good teacher. The ad campaign for the film has been funny, so I think that will generate interest in the film, but I have my doubts about how well it will do because Diaz and Segel are not “A” list box office stars whose names can open a film. I’ve included some films that star Diaz and Segel as well as some other romantic-comedies to help make my prediction. See below:

2008 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7 million opening weekend
2008 – What Happens in Vegas – $20.1 million opening weekend
2009 – I Love You, Man – $17.8 million opening weekend
2009 – The Ugly Truth – $27.6 million opening weekend
2011 – No Strings Attached – $19.6 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $20.56 million

The average listed above is around where I see Bad Teacher opening. Critics are mixed on the film as it has a 48% positive rating as of this writing, but I don’t think audiences who want to see this film care much about what the critics have to say. Bad Teacher will benefit or suffer from word-of-mouth, and we won’t find out the answer to that until next weekend. Opening in 3,049 theatres, I’m predicting that Bad Teacher will gross $21 million and finish in 3rd place.

Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:

Green Lantern had a decent debut last weekend, but this weekend we will find out if audiences have embraced the film. Unfortunately I don’t think it will be the massive hit that Warner Bros. had hoped for as I’m predicting a drop of 55% giving Green Lantern a gross of $23.9 million and a 2nd place finish.

Super 8 had a great hold last weekend and there is no reason to think that it will suffer a huge drop this weekend. I’m predicting that Super 8 drops 35% from last weekend, giving it a gross of $13.9 million and a 4th place finish.

Mr. Popper’s Penguins had an average debut last weekend and with Cars 2 entering theatres this weekend; it is going to be taking away a lot of Mr. Popper’s Penguins audience. I’m predicting that the Jim Carrey comedy will drop 47% giving the film a gross of $9.8 million and a 5th place finish.

In limited release the following films are opening: Beginning of the Great Revival, A Better Life, Conan O’Brien Can’t Stop, Double Dhamaal, General Orders No. 9, If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Leap Year, The Man Who Fell To Earth, The Names of Love, Raw Faith, Strangers Online and Turtle: The Incredible Journey.

A Better Life, Conan O’Brien Can’t Stop, If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front and Leap Year all have ratings above 75% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

Cars 2 – $90 million
Green Lantern – $23.9 million
Bad Teacher – $21 million
Super 8 – $13.9 million
Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $9.8 million

Think you can do better than me in making predictions? Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”. Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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