Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report


Captain America: The First Avenger debuted in 1st place this weekend in what surprisingly was not a close battle with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two.  In fact, one could argue that it wasn’t a battle at all, as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two set a franchise record for worst second weekend drop, which easily let the comic book superhero grab first place.  The other new release of the weekend – Friends with Benefits – debuted to expected results.  I picked all five films in the top five, placing three of them in order, but I was only really close on two of the films with their box office gross.  Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Captain America: The First Avenger debuted in 1st place with a gross of $65.8 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $77 million).  Captain America: The First Avenger had a per theatre average of $17,719, which was the highest per theatre average in the top ten.  The opening weekend gross is both good and bad news for the film.  It’s good because it finished in 1st place and made more money than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two, which was not an easy task considering that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two has the record for biggest opening weekend of all time.  What is disappointing is that the film is in a virtual tie with Thor for the largest opening weekend for a superhero film this summer and Captain America: The First Avenger is by far and away the bigger name in comics (I don’t mean to offend fans of Thor, X-Men or Green Lantern by saying that).  Here’s how the four superhero films have done this summer on their opening weekend:
Captain America: The First Avenger - $65.8 million opening weekend
Thor - $65.7 million opening weekend
X-Men: First Class - $55.1 million opening weekend
Green Lantern - $53.1 million opening weekend
We’ll see if word-of-mouth on the film is strong next weekend, but the film is doing well with critics so it should post solid holds going forward.  Captain America: The First Avenger cost $140 million to make, so it is essentially halfway to making back its budget for Paramount, but the real test will be whether or not it out grosses Thor, which has grossed $180.1 million as of this writing.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two dropped from 1st place to 2nd place with a gross of $48 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $62.6 million).  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows:  Part Two had a per theatre average of $10,986 and dropped a staggering 71.6% from last weekend’s record breaking gross.  The percentage drop was the highest percentage drop in the top ten, which is not good.  What is also not good news is the 71.6% second weekend drop is far and away the worst in franchise history.  See below:
Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – 36.3% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets- 52.2% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – 62.7% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – 46.7% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – 57.8% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – 62.1% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One – 60.7% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two – 71.6% second weekend drop
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two had such a record breaking opening weekend, that we did expect a big drop this weekend as up front demand had been met.  Having said that, the previous record holder for the biggest opening weekend of all time – The Dark Knight – only had a second weekend percentage drop of 52.5%, so it doesn’t look likely that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two will reach the heights of The Dark Knight with its final gross.  On the positive side, it should end its run as the highest grossing installment in the franchise when it finishes its run.  The record is currently held by Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone which ended its run with a gross $317.5 million.  After 10 days, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two has grossed $274.1 million for Warner Bros.
Friends with Benefits debuted in 3rd place with a gross of $18.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $17 million).  Friends with Benefits had a per theatre average of $6,323, which is a respectable debut for the film.  The gross was pretty close to the $19.6 million of this year’s No Strings Attached, which definitely had a similar plot, so it is safe to say that Friends with Benefits opened as most analysts expected.  The film’s stay in the top five should be a short one as three new films open next weekend, which should push Friends with Benefits outside the top five.  Friends with Benefits has a budget of $35 million, so it his just over halfway in making back its money for Screen Gems.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon dropped from 2nd place to 4th place with a gross of $12 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $8.3 million).  Transformers: Dark of the Moon had a per theatre average of $3,556 and was down 43.7% from last weekend’s gross.  The hold for Transformers:  Dark of the Moon this weekend is better than I expected considering that it was going up against two major blockbusters and it was still able to hold its own.  After four weeks of release, Transformers:  Dark of the Moon has grossed $325.7 million against a budget of $195 million. 
Horrible Bosses dropped from 3rd place to 5th place with a gross of $11.7 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $11.1 million).  Horrible Bosses had a per theatre average of $3,776 and was down 34.1% from last weekend.  Again, the word-of-mouth on the film is strong, as for the second straight weekend, the percentage drop from the previous weekend has been less than 40%.  After three weeks, Horrible Bosses has grossed $82.4 million for Warner Bros. against a budget of $35 million.
A few films in limited release have released their grosses for the weekend, but none were major hits:
Sarah’s Key had a gross of $117,000 from 5 theatres, giving the film a per theatre average of $23,400.
Another Earth had a gross of $78,413 from 4 theatres, giving the film a per theatre average of $19,603.
A Little Help had a gross of $48,000 from 24 theatres, giving the film a per theatre average of $2,000.
The Myth of an American Sleepover had a gross of $9,100 from one theatre, giving it the same per theatre average.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1. Captain America: The First Avenger - $77 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two - $62.6 million
3. Friends with Benefits - $17 million
4. Horrible Bosses - $11.1 million
5. Transformers:  Dark of the Moon - $8.3 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1. Captain America: The First Avenger - $65.8 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two - $48 million
3. Friends with Benefits - $18.5 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $12 million
5. Horrible Bosses - $11.7 million
Next weekend, three new films come out and look to dethrone Captain America: The First Avenger from first place at the box office.  The films are the Daniel Craig//Harrison Ford sci-fi adventure Cowboys and Aliens, the Steve Carell comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love and the live-action//animated kids film The Smurfs.

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About Andy Burns

Andy Burns has been Biff Bam Pop!’s Editor-In-Chief since its inception in 2008. His writing has appeared in The Toronto Sun, various World Wrestling Entertainment publications and was recently featured in Wanted Undead Or Alive by New York Times bestselling author Jonathan Maberry. The only thing he has to fear is fear itself…and sharks.

Posted on July 25, 2011, in box office predictions, General, Scotty G. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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