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Daily Archives: June 10, 2011

Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 10th, 2011

J.J. Abrams and Steven Spielberg team up as director and producer respectively to bring the sci-fi film Super 8 to theatres this weekend in what is surprisingly not a very competitive weekend at the box office.  The only other major new release is a kids film called Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer, which I’m betting that most people have not even heard of.  The question of the weekend is how well will Super 8 do at the box office and will it be able to dethrone X-men:  First Class?  Here’s how I predict the weekend will go down:

Super 8 is a story about a mysterious train crash in a small town in the late 70’s.  After the crash, things start happening to the people of the small town (mainly they disappear), and people think that there was someone or something in the crash that escaped and is responsible for the crisis the town now faces.  A young group of friends were recording a movie on a Super 8 camera when the crash happened and their film could be the key to solving the mystery.  The film features some actors that are recognizable, like Kyle Chandler from the TV show Friday Night Lights, but there is no superstar in the cast.  I don’t think that will hurt the films chances as it is being sold on the star power of writer/director J.J. Abrams and producer Steven Spielberg.  The only film I could really compare Super 8 to was a film that J.J. Abrams produced and that was Cloverfield.  Here’s how that film did on its opening weekend:
Cloverfield - $40 million opening weekend
Considering that Cloverfield opened in January of 2008 and was able to gross $40 million, Super 8 should be able to surpass that.  Reviews have been excellent with Rotten Tomatoes listing Super 8 at 82% positive as of this writing.  This well definitely help attract audiences who were unsure about the film, as the marketing campaign didn’t reveal much about the plot, but the good reviews will make them feel that their curiosity will be rewarded when they see it.  Opening in 3,379 theatres, I’m predicting that Super 8 will gross $55 million and finish in 1st place.
Among last weekends holdovers that will still be in the top five this weekend, here are my predictions:
X-Men:  First Class will not be the #1 film for the second weekend in a row, but the film should have a steady hold.  Much has been made about how low the opening weekend for the film was compared to the rest of the films in the X-Men franchise, but X-Men:  First Class is receiving the best reviews of the franchise since X2:  X-Men United.  For comparison purposes, here’s how the franchise has done on its second weekend:
X-Men – 56.9% second weekend drop
X2: X-Men United – 53.2% second weekend drop
X-Men:  The Last Stand – 66.9% second weekend drop
X-Men Origins:  Wolverine – 69% second weekend drop
Average Second Weekend Drop – 61.5%
There’s no way that X-Men:  First Class has a drop near that average, so I’m predicting that the film will drop 49% in its second weekend, giving it a gross of $28.1 million and a 2nd place finish.
The Hangover Part II suffered a big drop on its second weekend, but that was to be expected because of the huge opening weekend gross it had.  Things should steady for the film this weekend as I’m predicting a drop of 52% for The Hangover Part II, which will give it a gross of $15 million and a 3rd place finish.
Kung Fu Panda 2 hopes to have a strong hold this weekend as it will still be going after the family audience, but it will lose the young adult audience to Super 8.  Still, family films tend to hold strong in the summer, and Kung Fu Panda 2 is definitely hoping to have strong holds for the next two weekends, as Cars 2 comes out after that and the run of Kung Fu Panda 2 will be over at the box office.  I’m predicting that the animated adventure will drop 41% this weekend, giving the film a gross of $14 million and a 4th place finish.
Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids will be battling for the last spot in the top five.  This is a tough battle as I think that Bridesmaids will have the stronger hold this weekend, but Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides is a franchise film. However, it’s a franchise film that has suffered big drops every weekend and it will be the film that is most affected by the release of Super 8.  Therefore, I’m predicting that Bridesmaids will drop 33%, giving it a gross of $8 million and a 5th place finish, which barely edges out Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides as I’m predicting a 56% drop for that film, which will give it a gross of $7.9 million gross and a 6th place finish.
Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer is a film based on the popular children’s book series but it is not getting a lot of support from Relativity, which is only releasing it in 2,524 theatres.  It currently has a 12% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and I predict that it will finish in 8th place with a gross of $5 million.
In limited release the following films are opening:  Bride Flight, The Trip, The Troll Hunter and Viva Riva! 
All four films have ratings above 75% positive at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
  1. Super 8 - $55 million
  2. X-Men:  First Class - $28.1 million 
  3. The Hangover Part II - $15 million 
  4. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $14 million 
  5. Bridesmaids - $8 million 
Think you can do better than me in making predictions?  Go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com and sign up for “The Box Office Derby”.  Make your predictions and see if you can beat the man with the I.D. “ScottyG”.
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
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A First Class Film: Andy Burns On X-Men: First Class

Ah, the reboot. Sometimes they work (Batman Begins, Star Trek), sometimes they don’t (Superman Returns, The Incredible Hulk). So which class does the prequel/reboot X-Men: First Class find itself?

The answer to that, from my perspective, is pretty clear: if you call yourself an X-Men fan and don’t enjoy First Class, then you’re someone who will never be happy with the way our favorite mutants are portrayed on the big screen. A bold statement, to be sure, but that’s simply how good Matthew Vaughn’s film is. It’s big and full of sfx, just like a summer film should be, but it also has a smart script that focuses on character and relationships as much as action sequences and explosions.

For all intents and purposes, First Class removes itself from the previous X-Men trilogy and Wolverine film. You probably have heard by now that X-Men: First Class is a period piece, set in the 60′s when the mutant phenomenon hasn’t reached the public and tensions between Russia and the U.S. are at a breaking point. Giving a real world scenario to this particular story really helps ground the X-Men in a way that the previous films just didn’t. Where those felt fantastical, First Class has more of an espionage/spy feel to it. The James Bond comparisons are pretty close to the mark.

There’s so much to enjoy about X-Men: First Class, it’s hard to know where to start. James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender are absolutely brilliant in their roles as Professor Xavier and Magneto, respectively. I read an interview with the two recently where they admitted there were discussions with Matthew Vaughn as to whether they should base their performances on those by Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan. They don’t and that was a wise decision. McAvoy and Fassbender make these iconic characters their own, especially Fassbender, who is mesmerizing as Magneto, giving him real depth and soul. X-Men: First Class rests on their shoulders and the relationship between two men who would go from dear friends to determined rivals – if we don’t believe in them, the film fails.

I believed.

One of the cornerstones of the X-Men world is the struggle mutants have – do they search for acceptance from the world or do they embrace their differences and reject the rest of humanity? While this ground has been covered in all the films, First Class’ script covers it in a more serious and less bombastic way. While we may know which side many of the characters will wind up, it’s genuinely interesting to see fan favourites like Mystique (Jennifer Lawrence) and Beast (Nicholas Hoult) choose their paths.

Other things I loved enjoyed about the film – Kevin Bacon’s understated performance as the film’s villain, Sebastien Shaw; the way in which are heroes choose their code names; and January Jones’ cold as ice portrayal of Emma Frost, The White Queen.

In my mind, X-Men: First Class is pretty close to a perfect x-flick. There are little things that let me down (is there any reason Rose Byrne’s Moira Mactaggert couldn’t have had a Scottish accent?) but overall, not only do I think that X-Men: First Class is the best of all the films in the franchise, I feel it’s in the pantheon of films like The Dark Knight which transcend the genre of superhero films and stand simply as a great movie, mutants or not.

Hugely recommended.

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