Daily Archives: February 12, 2010
Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of February 12th, 2010
Three new releases, all targeting different demographics, look to battle for the top spot this weekend, and we could see some excellent numbers from them all. Dear John will definitely not be #1 again, but what will? Here’s my weekend box office preview to help you out.
Opening in 3,665 Valentine’s Day opens just in time for Valentine’s Day weekend. The all-star cast of Julia Roberts, Jessica Biel, Jessica Alba, Anne Hathaway, Bradley Cooper, Topher Grace, George Lopez, and Patrick Dempsey star in this ensemble film that looks to capitalize on the success of He’s Just Not That Into You (in terms of ensemble films succeeding at the box office. It has nothing else to do with that film except that). He’s Just Not That Into You opened around this time last year, and had an excellent opening weekend gross of $27.7 million. I think the star power is a little higher this time around, so I’m predicting a much higher opening. Women will definitely want to see this film, and husbands and boyfriends will be unwillingly dragged to it to make their loved ones happy. Men should note that the film is receiving terrible reviews as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 12% as of this writing. This film will be as critic-proof as it gets this time of year, and it will be the #1 film with a gross of $42 million.
The Wolfman is hoping to bring in a wave of Universal horror movies to the screen, but first it must overcome the estrogen of Valentine’s Day. The film is geared toward men, and is hoping to be an alternative to the typical fare at this time of year. The Wolfman has an excellent cast in Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, and Emily Blunt, but this film has had a very rocky road to the silver screen. It has had numerous reshoots, and many date changes, which all add up to negative buzz. The word-of-mouth on the film seems justified as it only has a 34% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Still, I think it can have a decent opening weekend, and we’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out. Opening in 3,222 theatres, I’m predicting that The Wolfman will gross $27 million, and finish in 2nd place.
Chris Columbus got the Harry Potter franchise started as he directed the first two films of that series, and he’s hoping that his new film will also be the start of a very successful franchise. Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief opens in theatres this weekend, and it is going after the kid market. I don’t know much about the film, but it reminds me more of the His Dark Materials or Lemony Snicket series than the Harry Potter series as I just don’t think it has that much interest from kids. Children get a long weekend, so parents will want to keep them busy so chances are great that they will take them to see this film. Reviews have been the best of the three films this week, with Rotten Tomatoes giving it a 58% approval rating as of this writing. I think the film will open just below The Golden Compass, and will have some work to do if it wants to make back its budget. Opening in 3,356 theatres, Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief will gross $24 million and finish in 3rd place at the box office this weekend.
I’m predicting all three new releases will make the top five, so that means three films from last weekend will drop out. The three films to say good-bye will be From Paris With Love, Edge of Darkness and The Tooth Fairy (I really really mean it this time). Just in case I am wrong on my predictions, I will guess that From Paris With Love will be the #6 film, as it will drop 57%, for a gross of $3.4 million.
Here’s how I think the remaining films will do:
Dear John will fall from #1 to #4 by dropping 25% for a gross of $22.8 million
Avatar will continue to hold strong, dipping only 20% for a gross of $18.2 million to be the #5 film.
In limited release, we have the following film opening:
My Name is Khan – a drama about a Muslim man who has Asperger’s syndrome. He is detained by authorities because of his weird social behaviour, and tries to clear his name. It opens in 120 theatres.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
1) Valentine’s Day – $42 million
2) The Wolfman – $27 million
3) Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief - $24 million
4) Dear John – $22.8 million
5) Avatar – $18.2 million
I think my predictions are very bold this weekend, as the top five films are projected to gross $134 million. Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
Survivor 20 – Heroes Vs. Villains: Two-hour Premiere Pits The Best Against The Best! Pdawg Weighs In!
Tonight, CBS takes us back to the game, back to the island, and back to a cast of characters we’ve come to love and hate over 19 cycles of TV’s best reality show. Survivor 20 – Heroes vs. Villains (HvV) – has all the makings of a classic.
Unlike other seasons of Survivor, we go into this one knowing the players, their personalities and their tendencies. More importantly, the players all know each other and what they are each capable of doing. All except for one – last season’s dirtiest player and perhaps the best there is/was/ever will be (to borrow a phrase) – Russell. Because season 20 was filmed before season 19 aired we have to believe that nobody knows Russell’s game and how he can masterfully manipulate every situation and find idols at will.
That said, this isn’t a band of nobody’s that Russell is up against this time. With the exception of the original ‘Survivor’ Richard Hatch, HvV is a venerable ‘who’s who’ of Survivor veterans, so it won’t be easy for Russell, or anyone else, to come away with the title and million bucks.
Perhaps even more difficult than participating in Survivor 20 is predicting the eventual outcome. While I’m usually pretty good and weeding out the long-shots and identifying at the very least someone who goes pretty far in the game, this one is up for grabs.
Off the top I don’t see one of the past winners winning it all again – they will have the largest targets on their backs, so at some point we will be saying goodbye to Sandra (how did she win Pearl Islands again?), JT, Parvati and Tom.
I also don’t see any of the infamous Survivors of years past lasting to the end. With that we can eliminate Boston Rob, Rupert, Colby, Coach, Cirie, James and Jerry from the mix.
That leaves us with two-time runner-up Amanda, Candice, Courtney, Danielle, Randy, Danielle, Tyson, Russell, Sugar and Stephanie as potential winners. I doubt either Randy or Tyson will be able to keep their mouths shut long enough to make it to the jury and I honestly can’t remember a thing about Candice or Danielle so they’re out. Courtney is too whiny to last and Sugar doesn’t have Bob to rely on for cover any longer.
I see it coming down to one of three players: Amanda – the Buffalo Bills of Survivor (she’s due for a win). Stephanie – hard worker, likeable and determined…she could be very dangerous. And Russell – I will never underestimate what this man is capable of doing so he must remain a favourite again.
Ultimately, I pick mid-carder Stephanie to fly under the radar and play a social game to win.
The Scribe Has Spoken…
