Daily Archives: December 20, 2009
Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report
The month of December has been very good to me in terms of predictions, and this week was no exception. I picked 4 of the 5 films in the top five (I could be 5 for 5 when final numbers come out on Monday), and my five predictions were off by less than $10 million. That’s not the important story. The question that you want answered is “How well did Avatar do?” Well, let’s get to it.
Avatar opened at #1 with a gross of $73 million (I predicted a #1 opening with a gross of $75 million). The film came out with guns a blazing thanks to a very strong marketing campaign that made sure you were aware the film was coming out this weekend, without really becoming annoying. Avatar had the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten with $21,147. Some reports have indicated that the gross could have been higher if the bad weather on the east coast had not come into play, but Avatar should play well over the long run, as those people who missed it will most likely see the film over the holiday break, so it should not lose any business. Avatar had the 2nd highest December opening weekend ever, which is all the more impressive, because this was an original story. Here are the largest opening weekends in December:
1) I Am Legend – $77.2 million
2) Avatar - $73 million
3) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – $72.6 million
4) The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe – $65.5 million
5) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers – $62 million
To bring the tie-in point again, I Am Legend was a remake of The Omega Man, so it was not based on original material, and the 3, 4, and 5 films were very popular books and had an avid fan base. That’s why I am so impressed with the gross of Avatar this weekend. The fact that the film was in 3-D and IMAX 3-D helped the final numbers, and I will be interested to see the breakdown between how much the film made in regular screenings, 3-D screenings, and IMAX 3-D screenings. Reviews were glowing for the film, so that should help bring out more adults in the coming weeks, and I think kids are already interested, and will pester their parents for money to go see Avatar. Overall, just an excellent start for Avatar.
In 2nd place is the #1 film from last weekend, The Princess and The Frog with a gross of $12.2 million (I predicted a #2 finish and a gross of $16.4 million). The film had a higher drop-off then I had expected in its second weekend of wide release, dropping 49.5%. Its per theatre average was a disturbingly low $3,518. I will cut the film some slack as now that kids are officially out of school, the numbers for the film should improve over the next two weeks, but I would think that Disney is not happy with the results of the film this weekend. Over four weeks of release, The Princess and The Frog has grossed $44.7 million.
In 3rd place is the big hit of the fall season The Blind Side with $10 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $9.4 million). The Sandra Bullock football drama fell 33.4% (the second lowest drop in the top ten), and had a per theatre average of $2,944. The budget on the film was a tiny $29 million, and over five weeks The Blind Side has grossed $164.7 million, and has officially become the highest grossing film of Sandra Bullock’s career, surpassing The Proposal’s gross of $163.9 million. It should be out of the top five next weekend, but it has been quite the run for this film.
In 4th place was the other new release of the weekend Did You Hear About the Morgan’s? with $7 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $8 million). Like I said in my weekend predictions, I felt this film should have been made when Hugh Grant had a little more star power, and Sarah Jessica Parker was still popular on TV with Sex and The City. Audiences seemed to agree with me on this, as the film had a per theatre average of $2,575. Expect this film to fade fast, and be on DVD shelves very soon.
Rounding out the top five is The Twilight Saga: New Moon with a gross of $4.3 million (I incorrectly predicted that Invictus would be the #5 film, and therefore I did not have a prediction for The Twilight Saga: New Moon). The vampire/werewolf flick had a very tiny per theatre average of $1,440, and it is coming to the end of its run. Over five weeks, The Twilight Saga: New Moon has grossed $274.5 million, which makes it the 5th highest grossing film of 2009. It will shortly become the #4 film of 2009, as it will surpass The Hangover sometime this week, as that film has grossed $277.3 million.
Invictus, as mentioned above, was my pick to be the #5 film. It ended up as the #6 film with a gross of $4.1 million, which was off by 51.6% from last weekend, and it had a per theatre average of $1,962. When final numbers come out on Monday, Invictus could be the #5 film.
In other news, Up In The Air continues to impress, as it was the #8 film, with a gross of $3.1 million, which was up 29.5% from last weekend. It had an additional 103 theatres showing the film, making the theatre count 175, and it has a per theatre average of $17,714. Expect this film to have a very steady run over the coming weeks.
Here’s how the films in limited release did:
The Young Victoria starring Emily Blunt grossed $148,000 from 20 theatres for a per theatre average of $7,400, which is low for a limited release film.
Crazy Heart starring Jeff Bridges grossed $84,200 from 4 theatres for a solid per theatre average of $21,050.
Nine starring Daniel Day-Lewis grossed $247,000 from 4 theatres for an excellent per theatre average of $61,750 (this was the highest per theatre average of any film this weekend).
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) Avatar – $75 million
2) The Princess and The Frog – $16.4 million
3) The Blind Side – $9.4 million
4) Did You Hear About The Morgans? – $8 million
5) Invictus – $6.3 million
And here are the final numbers:
1) Avatar – $73 million
2) The Princess and The Frog – $12.2 million
3) The Blind Side – $10 million
4) Did You Hear About The Morgans? – $7 million
5) The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $4.3 million
My box office predictions were off by $9.9 million
Opening this coming weekend are It’s Complicated, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, and Sherlock Holmes.
Until next week!
Brett Survives, Russell Takes Home a Souvenir: Survivor 19 Finale Coming Up!
I should have seen it coming. With all the attention Shambo received in the first 20 minutes of Episode XIV it was very likely that she would be the focus of the final five minutes of the show – and she was.
In the final episode before today’s 3-hour finale and reunion show we are treated to a day at the spa with Shambo – Survivor Samoa style. First she is seen receiving a scalp massage from Brett (side note: this alone should be enough for Brett to win the million. Anyone willing to stick their fingers in that mess of hair should be declared the instant winner). Later we see Sham washing/wetting/taming her achy-breaky-hair-mistakey down by the water.
At different points in Episdoe XIV both Russell and Jeff Probst himself take shots at Shambo’s choice in hairstyles. After Sham declares that she needs a trim, Russell unloads with a few choice comments about her funky do and the fact that she’s been hiding food in there – “bananas, pieces of coconut…”
While all that is going on, Brett does his best to move in on Nathalie by playing the God card. Knowing that she’s a devoted Christian, Brett starts reciting Bible passages that leave Nathalie with the feeling that her and Brett have more in common than she once thought.
Next up the final-six take part in a reward challenge where two teams of three go head-to-head in a game of Survivor Kerplunk. Basically a bunch of coconuts are suspended above ground by a series of intertwining ropes. One player at a time removes a rope causing the coconuts to shift and fall below. The first team with 100 coconuts loses. Russell, Shambo and Jaison take on Nathalie, Mick and Brett but in Russell’s mind the game is not his main concern. Russell is surprised when he sees Nathalie select Brett first overall to be on her team (leaving her Foa mates Jaison and Mick behind) and he grows increasingly concerned when he sees Nathalie and Brett holding hands and praying throughout the game. “Something might be going on,” Russell warns Shambo.
In the end, Russell’s team wins reward and the threesome are taken away to enjoy a local village feast at which time Russell confirms with Jaison and Shambo that it’s Brett’s time to go home, unless he wins immunity and then it will be Mick. The three agree and enjoy the rest of their reward.
Meanwhile, back at camp Brett suggests that the losing three have a little reward of their own by taking it easy, finding some food and just hanging out. This is a great move by Brett to build relationships with the Foa players that might be on the jury down the road and may just be a little ticked-off with Russell (when he eventually lets them go).
When Russell returns to camp he immediately confronts Nathalie about her recent actions and she assures him that it’s all part of the plan. Russell does a great job at selling that it’s not him who’s upset, but the others. Once he’s satisfied with Nathalie’s level of loyalty he assures her that he’s in control and it’s the two of them to the end.
The immunity challenge is more of a mental game this week as each player must count and remember a series of items (fish, rocks, octopi and pigs) and then use the numbers to open a combination lock. The speedier players like Mick and Jaison have a slight advantage because they can run between stations more quickly, but in the end both Jaison and Mick get the numbers wrong which allows Brett to calmly claim his second game-saving immunity in a row.
Back at camp Jaison tells Russell that Shambo needs to go because they need Mick to help get rid of Brett. As they discuss strategy, Shambo approaches and the conversation ends. This makes her nervous; however, she doesn’t do anything about it. Throughout the day she claims to be worried about things but she doesn’t appear to try and make a move or build a movement to target Russell.
At Tirbal Council, Russell once again steals the show when Jeff informs him that it’s his last chance to play the idol. Feeling more confident than ever, Russell declares that he’s keeping it as a souvenir – he doesn’t even receive one vote against him and Shambo becomes the latest Galu on the jury.
Here are my thoughts going in to the final. Russell is going to win. The others have had their chances to blindside him for weeks and they never even took a shot. Even Shambo, having been lied to by Russell last night, had to congratulate him for sticking with his original tribe. He has played the game intelligently and made it look like others were to blame for any hard feelings along the way (see John, Dave, Laura, Shambo etc.). He had a plan going in and he has executed it perfectly. He has also changed the way the immunity idol will be used in the game forever by finding them and using them as leverage.
If it comes down to it, the only person that could beat him in front of the jury is Brett because Brett’s entire team is the jury and they could reward him for making it to the end. If the Foa Four can get rid of Brett next it’s a done deal. The Galu jury will not give the money to Jaison, Mick or Nathalie over Russell as they have simply followed his lead. If by some miracle Russell and Brett are left out of the final three, look for Nathalie to take the million.
Once again my pre-season pick is still in the mix going to the finale, but I just don’t think Mick has done enough to get jury votes. He may be a nice guy and filled with integrity, but he won’t be the winner of Survivor Samoa.
The Scribe has spoken…Until Survivor 20!
